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Will Profertil Exit And Capital Shift Change Nutrien's (TSX:NTR) Long‑Term Cash Flow Narrative?

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • Nutrien Ltd. has completed the sale of its 50% equity stake in Argentine fertilizer producer Profertil S.A. to Adecoagro S.A. and Asociación de Cooperativas Argentinas as part of a broader portfolio realignment.
  • This exit frees up capital that Nutrien intends to direct toward focused growth projects, potential share repurchases, and debt reduction to support long-term free cash flow per share.
  • We’ll now examine how redirecting Profertil sale proceeds toward buybacks, debt reduction, and focused growth could reshape Nutrien’s investment narrative.

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Nutrien Investment Narrative Recap

To own Nutrien, you need to believe in long term demand for potash and nitrogen, backed by global food needs and Nutrien’s scale. The Profertil exit itself does not materially change the near term catalyst of capital returns and balance sheet repair, nor does it remove the core risk that fertilizer pricing and regulatory pressure could still drive significant earnings volatility.

The Profertil sale sits alongside Nutrien’s ongoing buyback program, where it has repurchased about 1.9% of its shares for roughly CA$519.19m in 2025. Together, these moves point to a more concentrated portfolio and a stronger emphasis on per share free cash flow, which matters if tighter environmental rules or alternative crop nutrition solutions start to pressure traditional fertilizer economics.

But while capital is being recycled, investors still need to watch how tighter environmental regulation could...

Read the full narrative on Nutrien (it's free!)

Nutrien's narrative projects $27.5 billion revenue and $2.3 billion earnings by 2028. This requires 3.2% yearly revenue growth and about a $0.9 billion earnings increase from $1.4 billion today.

Uncover how Nutrien's forecasts yield a CA$88.43 fair value, a 4% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

TSX:NTR 1-Year Stock Price Chart
TSX:NTR 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Nine members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see Nutrien’s fair value between CA$68.22 and CA$116.61, reflecting very different expectations. As you weigh those views, remember that tighter environmental regulation on fertilizer production could pressure Nutrien’s margins and reshape how its capital allocation choices translate into long term performance.

Explore 9 other fair value estimates on Nutrien - why the stock might be worth as much as 37% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Nutrien Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.