CICC: The “15th Five-Year Plan” boom continues AIDC boosts the global electricity supercycle

The Zhitong Finance App learned that CICC released a research report saying that the overall performance of the power grid and industrial control industry was steady and improving in 2025, prompting investors to focus on structural opportunities. In terms of power grids, the domestic power grid investment boom continued. UHV projects entered the accelerated approval and bidding period in the second half of the year. The bank believes that power grids are the post-cycle of new energy investment, and there is still a large investment gap that needs to be filled, and it is optimistic that the power grid investment boom will continue. In terms of industrial control, the overall cycle remains unchanged. Currently, it is still in the endogenous restoration stage. Looking ahead to next year, the bank believes that demand is expected to continue to increase steadily. In addition, the bank focuses on two highly flexible investment directions: AIDC and overseas.

CICC's main views are as follows:

Power grid: the “15th Five-Year Plan” boom continues

The bank expects the average annual growth rate of investment in power grid projects across the country during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period. It is optimistic that 1) UHV construction is expected to maintain high intensity under the demand for large scenic bases and hydropower delivery, 2) main network investment will remain high; 3) distribution network investment is optimistic about the direction of intelligent upgrading and transformation in the long term.

Industrial control: Overall demand is steady, and we are still optimistic about market opportunities for structural growth

Judging from demand and inventory, the overall market showed a moderate recovery; the high increase in demand related to energy storage and other new energy industries since this year has led to a rebound in OEMs. Looking ahead to next year, the bank believes that structural growth will still be the main driving force in the current market.

AIDC: Optimistic about high slope directions such as strong and weak power supplies

On the power side, there is a clear trend in the 800V DC power supply scheme due to power density upgrades. The bank is optimistic that the HVDC/Panamanian power supply/SST penetration rate is expected to gradually increase, and is concerned about the progress of the layout of leading manufacturers with both technology+channels. On the weak power side, the bank is optimistic that the continuous upgrading and iteration of server power supplies will greatly improve product ASP, and power supply manufacturers are expected to continue to benefit from iterative changes in Power Rack.

Going overseas: seizing power equipment export opportunities under the global electricity cycle

The bank believes that against the backdrop of increased load, decommissioning of coal/nuclear power, and an increase in the share of scenery, the risk of lack of electricity in many regions of the world is rising, and the world has ushered in a major cycle of electricity investment. Since this year, China's transformer exports have increased rapidly. The bank continues to be optimistic about increasing the overseas layout of Chinese power equipment companies and releasing flexible profits; the gas turbine and SOFC industry chains have ushered in opportunities to break through overseas.

risk

Grid investment falls short of expectations; macroeconomic fluctuations; the pace of development of emerging industries falls short of expectations; changes in international trade policies and risk of exchange rate fluctuations.