The Qingci Games Inc. (HKG:6633) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 27%. Longer-term shareholders would now have taken a real hit with the stock declining 3.3% in the last year.
In spite of the heavy fall in price, you could still be forgiven for thinking Qingci Games is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 3.1x, considering almost half the companies in Hong Kong's Entertainment industry have P/S ratios below 1.9x. However, the P/S might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Check out our latest analysis for Qingci Games
For instance, Qingci Games' receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.
Although there are no analyst estimates available for Qingci Games, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/S as high as Qingci Games' is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the industry.
Taking a look back first, the company's revenue growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 42%. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 13% in total over the last three years. Therefore, it's fair to say the revenue growth recently has been undesirable for the company.
In contrast to the company, the rest of the industry is expected to grow by 10% over the next year, which really puts the company's recent medium-term revenue decline into perspective.
With this in mind, we find it worrying that Qingci Games' P/S exceeds that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the recent poor growth rate and are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
Despite the recent share price weakness, Qingci Games' P/S remains higher than most other companies in the industry. Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-sales ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
We've established that Qingci Games currently trades on a much higher than expected P/S since its recent revenues have been in decline over the medium-term. With a revenue decline on investors' minds, the likelihood of a souring sentiment is quite high which could send the P/S back in line with what we'd expect. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, investors will have a hard time accepting the share price as fair value.
And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Qingci Games you should know about.
If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.