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Mondelez (MDLZ) Valuation Check After Recent Share Price Weakness

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Mondelez International (MDLZ) has been sliding quietly, with the stock down about 5% over the past month and roughly 9% this year, even as revenue and earnings continue to grow.

See our latest analysis for Mondelez International.

Zooming out, the stock’s recent 30 day share price return of around negative 5 percent and its roughly negative 9 percent year to date share price return suggest momentum has clearly cooled. This helps explain why the 1 year total shareholder return is now also negative despite solid fundamental growth.

If Mondelez’s softer momentum has you rethinking your watchlist, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership for ideas with stronger market conviction behind them.

With Mondelez trading below analyst targets despite steady revenue and profit growth, investors now face a key question: is this a mispriced consumer staple with room to run, or is the market already discounting its future gains?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 21.5% Undervalued

With Mondelez last closing at $54.04 against a most popular narrative fair value of about $68.85, the valuation case leans clearly to the upside while hinging on measured growth and margin gains rather than explosive expansion.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $74.417 for Mondelez International based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $88.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $67.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady revenue growth, rising margins, and a richer future earnings multiple combine into this upside case? The key assumptions may surprise you. Curious which long term earnings path and valuation level this narrative is quietly baking in? Dive in to unpack the full financial blueprint behind that fair value.

Result: Fair Value of $68.85 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, elevated cocoa costs and persistent consumer softness, especially in Europe and North America, could squeeze margins and derail that seemingly comfortable upside case.

Find out about the key risks to this Mondelez International narrative.

Build Your Own Mondelez International Narrative

If you are not fully convinced by this view or prefer digging into the numbers yourself, you can quickly shape a personalized outlook in minutes. Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Mondelez International research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.