Changes in US stocks | Stock prices continue to fall, Broadcom (AVGO.US) falls more than 4%, and high performance growth is questioned

The Zhitong Finance App learned that after the stock price plummeted by more than 11% last Friday, Broadcom (AVGO.US) once again fell more than 4% to $344.96 on Monday. A note to Broadcom's financial report shows that there is a significant divergence between the year-on-year increase in AI R&D investment (27%) and the increase in the number of patents (5%), revealing that growth depends more on the expansion of order size than on the increase in technical barriers. The three major risks have resonated: the narrowing of gross margins due to customer price pressure, the price war caused by excessive inference chip production capacity, and the financial burden brought about by high debt, and the revenue data disclosed in the financial report just became a trigger point for risk exposure. Capital's valuation logic for the AI chip industry is shifting from a “growth rate only theory” to a comprehensive consideration of profit stability and risk controllability.

Analysts believe that judging from financial data and business structure, Broadcom's risk exposure is clearly indicative. The AI business's 51% gross profit margin, 75% revenue concentration of the top three customers, and the debt size of 69.8 billion US dollars together form the “vulnerability” of growth — excessive reliance on customized OEM models leads to insufficient profit elasticity, major customer dependency increases the risk of revenue fluctuations, and high debt amplifies the impact of declining profits in an environment of high interest rates. This combination of “high growth+high risk” is in stark contrast to the current preference for capital to pursue “certainty.”