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Otis Worldwide (OTIS): Valuation Check as Organic Growth Slows and Free Cash Flow Margins Tighten

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Recent analysis of Otis Worldwide (OTIS) is raising eyebrows, as two years of underwhelming organic revenue and a thinner free cash flow margin point to softer demand and a more capital hungry business model.

See our latest analysis for Otis Worldwide.

That softer operating picture seems to be weighing on sentiment, with the share price down about 4.4% year to date and the 1 year total shareholder return of roughly negative 8.3% signaling fading momentum despite a still respectable 3 year total shareholder return near 18%.

If Otis’s steady but unspectacular outlook has you rethinking where growth might come from next, it could be worth exploring fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as a fresh hunting ground for ideas.

Yet with the shares trading below both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, investors face a key question: Is Otis quietly undervalued here, or is the market already pricing in all the growth it can deliver?

Most Popular Narrative: 14.6% Undervalued

With Otis Worldwide last closing at $88.14 against a narrative fair value of about $103.25, the gap hinges on specific long term growth levers.

Significant cost saving initiatives, including the UpLift and China transformation programs, are on track to deliver over $240 million in annual run rate savings, improving operating leverage and underpinning stronger net margin and earnings growth even amid near term pressure in new equipment sales.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady mid single digit sales, rising margins, and a richer earnings multiple can still point higher from here? The full narrative reveals the exact profit trajectory, valuation multiple, and discount rate that need to align for this price target to hold up.

Result: Fair Value of $103.25 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent weakness in China and prolonged softness in commercial real estate could derail modernization demand and blunt the expected uplift in high margin service revenue.

Find out about the key risks to this Otis Worldwide narrative.

Build Your Own Otis Worldwide Narrative

If you are not convinced by this view or would rather dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized narrative in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Otis Worldwide research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, consider your next watchlist candidates with targeted screens that spotlight where growth, income, and innovation are already gaining real traction.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.