The board of Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE:MTN) has announced that it will pay a dividend of $2.22 per share on the 12th of January. The dividend yield will be 5.5% based on this payment which is still above the industry average.
Impressive dividend yields are good, but this doesn't matter much if the payments can't be sustained. Based on the last payment, the dividend made up 90% of cash flows, but a higher proportion of net income. This indicates that the company could be more focused on returning cash to shareholders than reinvesting to grow the business.
Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 19.6%. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could reach 110%, which probably can't continue without putting some pressure on the balance sheet.
See our latest analysis for Vail Resorts
The company's dividend history has been marked by instability, with at least one cut in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $2.49 in 2015 to the most recent total annual payment of $8.88. This implies that the company grew its distributions at a yearly rate of about 14% over that duration. Despite the rapid growth in the dividend over the past number of years, we have seen the payments go down the past as well, so that makes us cautious.
Growing earnings per share could be a mitigating factor when considering the past fluctuations in the dividend. Vail Resorts has seen EPS rising for the last five years, at 42% per annum. Although earnings per share is up nicely Vail Resorts is paying out 122% of its earnings as dividends, which we feel is borderline unsustainable without extenuating circumstances.
Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. In general, the distributions are a little bit higher than we would like, but we can't ignore the fact the quickly growing earnings gives this stock great potential in the future. This company is not in the top tier of income providing stocks.
Investors generally tend to favour companies with a consistent, stable dividend policy as opposed to those operating an irregular one. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. Just as an example, we've come across 2 warning signs for Vail Resorts you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.