WEBULL

Moderna (MRNA): Reassessing Valuation After Recent Share Price Rebound and Stabilizing Revenue Trends

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Moderna (MRNA) has been drifting lower this year, even as its pipeline and revenue trends show some signs of stabilization. That disconnect is what has put the stock back on investors radars.

See our latest analysis for Moderna.

At around $29.46, the recent 90 day share price return of 25.31% contrasts with a still weak 1 year total shareholder return of negative 29.57%. This suggests tentative momentum as investors reassess Moderna’s long term pipeline potential.

If Moderna’s rebound has you thinking more broadly about healthcare innovation, this could be a good moment to explore other healthcare stocks that might fit your strategy.

With revenue stabilizing but losses still sizable and the stock trading at a discount to analyst targets, the key question now is straightforward: Is Moderna undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 17.7% Undervalued

With Moderna last closing at $29.46 versus a most popular narrative fair value of about $35.78, the story leans toward recovery potential rather than decline.

Cost structure transformation including significant workforce reductions, manufacturing and procurement efficiencies, and ongoing R&D prioritization puts Moderna on course to more than halve operating expenses by 2027 and target cash breakeven by 2028, driving considerable improvements in net margins and future earnings leverage.

Read the complete narrative.

It may seem counterintuitive that a still loss making biotech is marked up toward steady profitability and premium multiples without blockbuster sales today. The revenue glide path, margin reset, and long term earnings math behind that fair value might be unexpected. Investors can examine which growth and profitability assumptions underpin the upside case, and how they connect to pipeline milestones and cash runway expectations.

Result: Fair Value of $35.78 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained COVID vaccine demand erosion and intensifying respiratory competition could delay Moderna’s path to profitability and undermine the upside implied in this narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

If you see Moderna’s story differently or want to ground your own view in the numbers, you can build a personalized narrative in just minutes, Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Moderna.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.