WEBULL

Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC): Valuation Check After Higher 2025 Ore Quota and New Environmental Permit

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Nickel Industries (ASX:NIC) just secured a higher 2025 ore sales quota at its Hengjaya project and a fresh five year environmental permit. This combination sparked the latest move in the share price.

See our latest analysis for Nickel Industries.

The latest bump in the share price, now A$0.775, sits against a mixed backdrop, with a double digit 90 day share price return of 10.71% but a weaker 1 year total shareholder return of negative 11.63%. This suggests short term momentum is improving even as longer term holders remain under water.

If Hengjaya’s higher quota has you thinking about where else growth and permitting wins might land, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With analyst targets sitting above today’s price and a sizeable implied discount to some valuation models, investors now face the key question: Is Nickel Industries quietly undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its next growth leg?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 24.7% Undervalued

With Nickel Industries last closing at A$0.775 against a narrative fair value of A$1.03, the valuation story hinges on how convincingly earnings visibility improves.

Recent commentary from bullish analysts indicates that the uplift in fair value is grounded more in execution confidence than in expectations of rapid near term expansion. They emphasize a clearer line of sight on project ramp up schedules and downstream integration, which they believe reduces the risk of earnings disappointment and supports a modest re rating of the shares.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue climb, margin reset, and future earnings multiple are built into this target price? The full narrative spells out the playbook.

Result: Fair Value of $1.03 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, ongoing capex demands and Indonesian regulatory uncertainty could squeeze cash flow, delay key projects, and quickly undermine today’s improved earnings visibility narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Nickel Industries narrative.

Build Your Own Nickel Industries Narrative

If the current storyline does not quite fit your view, dive into the data yourself and build a fresh perspective in minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Nickel Industries.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.