Guojin Securities: The triple inflection point of policy+technology+performance, commercial aerospace ushered in a singular moment

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in the commercial space sector, SpaceX has become a global commercial space weather vane, and Musk has begun planning a blueprint for space computing power. China's “15th Five-Year Plan” plan clearly lists aerospace as a key development direction for strategic emerging industrial clusters. Recently, reusable rockets have been launched intensively, and Starnet and the Thousand Sails Constellation have accelerated networking. Whether judging from overseas projections or domestic catalysts, commercial aerospace industry trends have reached a singular moment.

Guojin Securities's main views are as follows:

Overseas mapping: SpaceX & Starlink - a logical mapping of core investment in A-share commercial aerospace

1. SpaceX: Not a traditional aerospace manufacturer, but a space logistics and infrastructure monopolist

SpaceX has built a self-reinforcing commercial closed loop: using Falcon 9's unrivaled launch cost advantage to build Starlink, the world's largest space communication network, and used the huge cash flow generated by these two to support the most ambitious engineering project in human history, the Starship Starship.

SpaceX's core competitiveness stems from the deep integration of three dimensions:

① Cost barrier: Through the complete first-level reuse of Falcon 9, the marginal internal launch cost has been reduced to nearly US$15 million, and the gross margin can be as high as 68% when the number of multiplexing tasks reaches 5 times. This cost structure allows SpaceX to have pricing power in the face of traditional military giants such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin. This barrier is not a patent barrier, but a scale effect barrier to manufacturing and operation. Even if competitors build recyclable rockets, they cannot replicate the data and supply chain efficiency accumulated by SpaceX's 100+ launches per year.

② Manufacturing barriers: From engines, arrow structures, and laser communication modules to spacesuits and flight software, SpaceX has achieved more than 80% self-development and production. Although the vertical integration strategy was a huge investment in the early stages, it brought extremely high iteration speed and cost control ability in the later stages. This chain dominance enables it to update spacecraft at the iterative speed of consumer electronics products, bringing rocket manufacturing from manual workshops to the assembly line era.

③ Customer barriers: The relationship between SpaceX and the US government has gone beyond a simple customer-contractor relationship and evolved into a deeply tied strategic symbiosis. Through these long-term, high-value contracts, NASA and DOD have in fact provided huge subsidies for SpaceX's core research and development (Starship in particular). In return, the US government received independent, reliable, inexpensive, and technologically advanced space entry capabilities, completely getting rid of the inefficiency of traditional military-industrial complex “cost +” contracts.

2. Starlink: SpaceX's cash cow and core growth engine, a global satellite SaaS platform absolutely protected by the parent company's moat

Starlink has created a powerful flywheel effect. More users bring more revenue, more revenue supports more satellite launches, and more satellites bring better coverage and experience, thus attracting more users. In front of this flywheel, the competitor's catch-up window is quickly closing. Starlink is evolving into an indispensable space-based pole in global communications infrastructure.

Launcher: A dimensional reduction attack based on launch hegemony. When Amazon's Project Kuiper or OneWeb needed to pay a high market price (70 million US dollars) to launch a satellite, Starlink only had to pay the parent company SpaceX's internal marginal costs (15 million US dollars). This fundamental difference in cost structure enables Starlink to network at a speed and density unattainable by rivals in the capital-intensive competition of low-orbit satellites. This is not only a technical victory, but also a triumph of cost efficiency.

Business model evolution: three-stage rocket TAM expansion. Starlink has evolved from a single B2C product to a multi-level SaaS platform covering B2C, B2B, and B2B2C.

① Phase 1 (B2C Personal Edition): Broadband replacement in rural and remote areas. This is Starlink's current basic plan, but it is limited by the population density of specific geographic regions.

② Phase 2 (B2B Enterprise Edition): Monopoly of high-value mobile scenarios. High-ARPU markets such as aviation, maritime affairs, and land mobility are the key to increasing Starlink's profit margins. Starlink's low latency and global coverage has few alternatives, and is rapidly reaping market share from traditional GEO satellite operators such as Viasat.

③ Phase 3 (B2B2C): The ultimate network directly connected to your phone. This is the key to a further increase in Starlink's valuation. By partnering with operators, Starlink will no longer be just an internet service provider, but will become a space base station and secured network for global telecom operators. This will elevate its user base from one million to 100 million, completely breaking the coverage boundaries of physical base stations.

Technical side: Starlink's technical barriers stem from its extreme industrial manufacturing capabilities and the efficiency of vertical integration. Starlink abandoned the traditional model of satellite laboratory customization and adopted a unique tablet design. This not only enables automated mass production similar to automobile assembly lines, reduces the cost of a single star to an order of magnitude below the industry average, but also greatly optimizes the space utilization rate within the fairing, and achieves the ultimate cost reduction at the transmission end. The interstellar laser link is Starlink's killer feature that distinguishes it from competing products. Through all standard optical communication terminals, Starlink has built a light-speed mesh network in space. This frees it from its geographical dependency on terrestrial information gateways, enables truly seamless global coverage and low millisecond latency, and creates a user experience barrier that military and high-end commercial customers cannot refuse.

III. Investment logic mapping for A-share commercial aerospace

Based on SpaceX's proven monopoly position on the launch side and the monetization path of the StarLink giant constellation, the core investment logic of A-share commercial aerospace can be summarized as: embracing the infrastructure explosion period of the Thousand Sails Constellation and locking in water sellers of high-barrier components. In terms of time, China is on the eve of a network similar to SpaceX 2018-2020. As the G60 Qianfan and GW State Grid enter an intensive launch period, satellite manufacturing is shifting from “laboratory customization” to “automobile assembly line production.” Before liquid recyclable rocket technology was fully mature, the most definitive alpha benefit in the industrial chain came from high-value satellite core stand-alone units and payloads with high entry barriers. Suppliers that can provide generalized power supplies, communications, and attitude control systems will take the lead in delivering results.

Domestic catalysis: intensive launch of reusable rockets, commercial space ushered in singularity

1. Domestic catalysis: currently in a critical window of burgeoning demand and tight capacity

① Demand side: China Star Network and the Qianfan Constellation have accelerated networking, with an average annual launch demand of more than 1,000 units, and the current national team capacity can only meet the 100 level requirements. The huge gap is a rigid market for private rocket companies.

② Technical side: [Rocket] Recyclability is the key to reducing commercial space costs. The end of 2025 to 2026 will be a major testing year for liquid recyclable rockets. Suzake-3 has successfully entered orbit, and recyclable rockets such as Long March 12A and Tianlong 3 are about to fly for the first time. The country has entered an intensive launch period for recyclable rockets, marking that China is only one step away from breaking through recycling and reuse as a core cost reduction technology. [Satellite] Hainan Wenchang Gigafactory is about to be put into operation, with an annual output of 1,000 stars, and the satellite side has achieved batch cost reduction; GW and G60 are both planning tens of thousands. Considering the limited orbital resources of low-orbit satellites, satellite production is being accelerated. Musk plans space computing power. The country plans to build and operate a centralized large-scale data center system with more than gigawatts of power in the 700-800 km morning and sunset orbit to achieve the highest computing power.

③ Policy side: The “15th Five-Year Plan” clearly lists aerospace as a key development direction for strategic emerging industry clusters. The Space Administration issued the “Action Plan to Promote the High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)” and established a commercial space department; at the industrial level, domestic commercial space has formed a complete industrial chain covering “stars, arrows, fields, measurement, and use”. The 155 satellite terminal is expected to enter the commercialization stage; the rocket end is expected to be normalized and reusable; the application side is expected to accelerate C-terminal penetration, and large-scale applications are expected in scenarios such as direct mobile phone connection, direct automobile connection, and low-altitude economy.

2. Investment Strategy: Capacity construction period → upstream manufacturing has the highest certainty

① Phase 1 (present): Focus on rocket/satellite core components. Performance flexibility is greatest in 3D printing (core process for cost reduction), special materials, and T/R components.

② Phase 2 (medium term): Focus on ground infrastructure, user terminals, and operation side.

Risk warning: key personnel risk; Starship R&D blocked; geopolitics; risk of rising costs.