Huatai fixed income points out that bank debt investment behavior is essentially an optimization problem under multiple constraints. While balancing stable and high yield goals, they also face more stringent restrictions. The “bank account interest rate risk” or “deltaEVE,” which the market is paying a lot of attention to recently, is one of them. It is essentially a measurement of a bank's ability to withstand shocks. In the past two years, major banks have taken on many long-term government bonds in the primary market. The asset term has been passively lengthened, while the long-term term of the debt side has been shortened due to deposit activation, etc. This mismatch caused most major banks to approach the “red line” of 15% in 2024. Considering that the fiscal tone of this year and next year is more positive and forward-looking, the pressure on indicators is difficult to resolve in the short term. Combined with the escalation of pressure on bank accounts at the mercy of bank accounts, it is inevitable that its acceptance for the long term will weaken or be inevitable. If target restrictions are relaxed, special treasury bond funding, and floating rate debt expansion are expected to “quench thirst soon” during this period, but the space should not be too optimistic; banks are still “worried for a long time” about their ability to bear long-term interest rate bonds.

Huatai fixed income points out that bank debt investment behavior is essentially an optimization problem under multiple constraints. While balancing stable and high yield goals, they also face more stringent restrictions. The “bank account interest rate risk” or “deltaEVE,” which the market is paying a lot of attention to recently, is one of them. It is essentially a measurement of a bank's ability to withstand shocks. In the past two years, major banks have taken on many long-term government bonds in the primary market. The asset term has been passively lengthened, while the long-term term of the debt side has been shortened due to deposit activation, etc. This mismatch caused most major banks to approach the “red line” of 15% in 2024. Considering that the fiscal tone of this year and next year is more positive and forward-looking, the pressure on indicators is difficult to resolve in the short term. Combined with the escalation of pressure on bank accounts at the mercy of bank accounts, it is inevitable that its acceptance for the long term will weaken or be inevitable. If target restrictions are relaxed, special treasury bond funding, and floating rate debt expansion are expected to “quench thirst soon” during this period, but the space should not be too optimistic; banks are still “worried for a long time” about their ability to bear long-term interest rate bonds.