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Trip.com (NasdaqGS:TCOM): Valuation Check After Q3 2025 Beat and Strengthening Cross-Border Travel Recovery

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Trip.com Group (TCOM) just beat expectations in its fiscal Q3 2025 report, with international bookings and inbound travel surging, and the stock reaction reflects growing confidence in its cross border travel recovery story.

See our latest analysis for Trip.com Group.

Despite today’s muted 1 day share price return, Trip.com’s 8.3% year to date share price gain and triple digit three and five year total shareholder returns suggest momentum is still broadly constructive as cross border demand rebuilds and sentiment improves.

If Trip.com’s travel rebound has you thinking about what else might run, this is a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With revenue still growing double digits, earnings dipping, and the shares trading at a sizeable discount to analysts’ targets and some intrinsic value estimates, is this a buying opportunity, or are markets already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 18.3% Undervalued

With Trip.com Group last closing at $70.13 against a narrative fair value near $85.81, the valuation debate centers on how durable its growth and margins really are.

Ongoing investment in proprietary artificial intelligence, personalized recommendation engines, and integrated one stop trip planning tools (like Trip.Planner and Intelli Trip) is driving higher user engagement, stronger repeat bookings, and better operating leverage, supporting margin expansion and increased customer lifetime value.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady revenue growth, easing margins, and a higher future profit multiple can still justify a richer fair value than today’s price? The narrative leans on a specific earnings path, a deliberate discount rate, and a valuation multiple usually reserved for premium consumer platforms. Want to see the exact assumptions that turn those moving parts into that target fair value? Read on to unpack the full story behind this projection.

Result: Fair Value of $85.81 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, rising competition and potential travel disruptions from geopolitical tensions could quickly challenge these upbeat growth and valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Trip.com Group narrative.

Build Your Own Trip.com Group Narrative

If you see the outlook differently or simply prefer hands on analysis, you can build a personalized Trip.com thesis in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Trip.com Group research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.