Musk responds to SpaceX plans to go public: “accurate”

The Zhitong Finance App learned that during a social media interaction with tech media Ars Technica space industry reporter Eric Berger on Wednesday, Musk hinted that SpaceX might conduct an initial public offering (IPO). In response to the latest report that SpaceX will go public in 2026, Berger posted an article on X saying “this is the reason I think SpaceX will go public soon,” and attached an article he published on Ars Technica about SpaceX's listing plans. “Accurate,” Musk responded.

In the article, Berger explores why now is the right time for Musk's space company to go public, and points out that the rise of artificial intelligence and space data center opportunities played an important role in this move. Earlier, several news outlets reported that SpaceX plans to go public in 2026 and that the issuance of new shares will value the company to about $800 billion, with the goal of raising more than $30 billion in capital.

Last weekend, Musk said reports about the company's valuation of $800 billion were “inaccurate,” and spoke about the amount his company received from NASA.

Musk wrote, “Although I love NASA, next year their share of revenue will be less than 5% of our total revenue. Business Starlink is our biggest source of revenue. Some people claim that SpaceX is' subsidized 'by NASA, which is completely nonsense.”

The report quoted information revealed by people familiar with the matter. The company's target valuation is about 1.5 trillion US dollars. If SpaceX sells 5% of its shares as planned, the scale of capital raised will reach about 40 billion US dollars, far exceeding the world's largest IPO record set by Saudi Aramco at the time. Saudi Aramco raised US$29 billion in 2019, making it the world's largest IPO to date. Notably, Saudi Aramco only sold about 1.5% of its shares at the time, far below the circulation ratio of most listed companies.

SpaceX expects revenue of about $15 billion in 2025 and will increase to $22 billion to $24 billion in 2026. Most of this revenue comes from Starlink's Starlink business. The company's accelerated pace of listing is partly due to strong growth in Starlink satellite internet services, including prospects for direct-connected mobile businesses, and progress in the development of Starship rockets for lunar and Mars missions.

Earlier, Ark Invest, an investment company owned by “Sister Wood” Kathy Wood, predicted that by 2030, the corporate value of Elon Musk's space company SpaceX would reach about 2.5 trillion US dollars. Based on ARK's open source model, this valuation is based on a Monte Carlo simulation that takes into account 17 key variables that reflect SpaceX's potential for development over the next twenty years.

The model provides three possible valuation scenarios: $2.5 trillion for the base scenario, $1.7 trillion for the pessimistic scenario, and $3.1 trillion for the optimistic scenario. These predictions show differences due to strategic initiatives, such as satellite development and deployment, and the ultimate emphasis on colonizing Mars.

Looking ahead to 2026, it looks like Musk will have a strong ally in the US government's space program. Jared Isaacman, who spent millions of dollars leading SpaceX's two private space flights in 2021 and 2024, is likely to become the next NASA director and passed the committee's vote on Monday. Next, he will submit it to the full Senate vote to get confirmation.

SpaceX is NASA's main contractor, but Acting Director Sean Duffy criticized Musk's space operations for falling behind schedule on the Artemis lunar landing program, which has been postponed several times. Musk lashes out at Duffy, accusing him of “trying to kill NASA!”

This summer, after a clash with Musk, President Trump withdrew his nomination for Isaacman and handed over leadership of the space program to Secretary of Transportation Duffy. Trump said at the time that there was a conflict of interest in Isaacman's relationship with Musk. Isaacman's re-nomination in early November showed that the relationship between Trump and Musk was repairing, and Musk's attendance at the White House dinner later that month strengthened the restoration of friendship between the two sides.