Minmetals Securities: The short-term boom in the energy storage industry is expected to continue to be optimistic about the growth of the global energy storage industry in 2026

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Minmetals Securities released a research report saying that looking ahead to 2026, the short-term boom in the energy storage industry is expected to continue, and there is still broad room for long-term growth. It is recommended to focus on the following five major changes: the trend of electricity spot price differences in various provinces, the progress of energy storage capacity compensation mechanisms in the US, the progress of implementation of AIDC distribution and storage projects in Europe, and the negative impact of upstream prices and energy storage demand. Currently, there are more positive factors affecting the development of the industry than potential risks, and we remain optimistic about the growth of the global energy storage industry in 2026.

Minmetals Securities's main views are as follows:

Change 1: The trend of peak and valley price differences in electricity spot in various provinces

The peak and valley price spread in the electricity spot market is a more forward-looking indicator of prosperity than tender data, and should be focused on in 2026. According to the requirements of Document No. 394, by the end of 2025, the electricity spot market in most provinces across the country has entered long-term cycle/continuous settlement trial operation. Spot price differences in each province directly reflect the local energy consumption situation and system regulation needs. The future electricity spot market will be the baton. Whether energy storage or photovoltaics should be prioritized in the short term will be determined by market supply and demand and price mechanisms.

Change 2: Progress of energy storage capacity compensation mechanisms in various provinces

Capacity compensation is expected to become the second largest source of revenue for independent energy storage power plants after spot market revenue. The implementation progress will have an important impact on the pace of domestic energy storage construction, and should be focused in 2026. At present, a national energy storage capacity compensation policy has not been introduced, but provinces such as Mengxi, Shandong, and Gansu have begun preliminary exploration. Overall, there are still a few provinces that have introduced capacity compensation mechanisms, and it is expected that they will gradually be promoted nationwide in the next two years.

Change 3: Progress in the implementation of the US AIDC allocation and storage project

After the tariff changes are implemented, AIDC is expected to become a key variable, driving the growth of the US market beyond expectations and should be focused on in 2026. The energy storage demand driven by the construction of AI data centers in the US is divided into two aspects: first, the AIDC next-generation power supply architecture is equipped with energy storage, and the potential demand will increase by about 70 GWh in the next 5 years; the second is to meet the AIDC power supply gap through optical storage, and the potential demand will increase by about 74 GWh over the next 5 years.

Change 4: European Reserve System Innovation and Project Implementation

Innovation in European energy storage policy tools and market mechanisms is expected to push Europe to surpass the US to become the largest incremental market for overseas energy storage, and should focus on 2026. Italy introduced long-term capacity contract guarantees for independent energy storage power plants through the MACSE capacity procurement mechanism, and the UK provides incentives for long-term energy storage investment through a guaranteed income mechanism.

Change 5: The negative impact of upstream prices and energy storage demand

The price of lithium carbonate and the economy of energy storage influence each other. Where the two have reached a balance, we should focus on in 2026. The price of lithium carbonate is a core variable affecting the cost of energy storage. It is necessary to clearly understand the objective current situation where domestic energy storage has just passed the economic inflection point. The profit model for independent energy storage power plants in most provinces is still relatively “weak”, and individual highly economical demonstration projects cannot be used as a partial generalization.

In summary, in terms of installed capacity, the bank expects to add 388 GWh of global energy storage capacity in 2026, an increase of 45%; in terms of shipment volume, the bank expects global energy storage battery shipments to be 825 GWH in 2026, an increase of 39% over the previous year.

Risk warning: 1) risk of fluctuations in energy storage industry policy and electricity market policy; 2) risk of industrial competition exacerbating risk; 3) risk of international trade friction; 4) risk of deviation in energy storage economic model estimation.