WEBULL

Rayonier (RYN): Reassessing Valuation After a 3-Month Slide and Weak 1-Year Shareholder Returns

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Rayonier (RYN) has been quietly grinding lower this year, even as timberland values and housing-related demand remain in focus. With the stock down sharply over the past 3 months, investors are reassessing what they are actually getting.

See our latest analysis for Rayonier.

Despite a modest 1 week share price rebound, Rayonier is still nursing a steep 3 month share price return of around negative 17 percent, and its 1 year total shareholder return of roughly negative 14 percent signals that momentum is still fading rather than turning.

If Rayonier’s recent slide has you rethinking your exposure to real assets, this could be a good moment to scan the market for other ideas using fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With analyst targets implying upside but fundamentals showing shrinking revenue and earnings, investors now face a key question: is Rayonier undervalued after this pullback, or is the market already pricing in any future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 20.8% Undervalued

With Rayonier closing at $22.30 against a narrative fair value of about $28.17, the story leans toward upside potential rather than a value trap.

The company's strengthened balance sheet after the New Zealand asset sale, along with opportunistic share repurchases, enhances per-share value and provides flexibility to fund growth initiatives or acquisitions that could drive further long-term EPS and NAV accretion.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of shrinking revenues and thinner margins could still support a higher value, and why a far richer future earnings multiple is central to this narrative? The full write up reveals the detailed path from today’s earnings base to that premium valuation and the specific assumptions that have to hold for it to work.

Result: Fair Value of $28.17 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside hinges on both weather and market cooperation, as severe climate events or weaker timber demand could quickly undercut pricing power and cash flows.

Find out about the key risks to this Rayonier narrative.

Build Your Own Rayonier Narrative

If you see Rayonier’s story differently or want to stress test the assumptions yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Rayonier research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

Before you move on, consider scanning hand picked opportunities across themes that could complement, or even outperform, your current Rayonier view.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.