Why GE Vernova's Ambitious Roadmap Has Analysts Divided

GE Vernova’s (NYSE:GEV) latest Investor Day refreshed expectations with sharper financial targets and a more defined strategic roadmap, prompting analysts to reassess the company’s long-term trajectory.

Seaport Global analyst Tom Curran now considers GEV fairly valued following the December 9 event and the stock’s rise to about $723.

Management raised its 2028 goals, doubled the quarterly dividend to 50 cents, and expanded the buyback program to $10 billion.

Related: GE Vernova Rockets After Investor Day: Why Bank Of America Sees More Room To Run

After updating his model to reflect these higher targets, Curran sees a more balanced risk-reward profile and downgrades GEV to Neutral from Buy.

GEV now targets 2028 EBITDA of $10 billion, revenue of $52 billion (12%–13% CAGR), and a 20% EBITDA margin. Cumulative free cash flow for 2025–2028 is projected at $22 billion.

For 2026, guidance includes $41–$42 billion in revenue, 11%–13% EBITDA margins, and $4.5–$5.0 billion in free cash flow. These estimates exclude Prolec, though management reaffirmed strong expectations for the business.

Growth Drivers: Power–Gas and Electrification

Curran highlights Power–Gas as a major growth driver, with hyperscalers accounting for over one-third of recent orders and supporting an 80GW year-end backlog target.

GEV expects fulfillment capacity to reach 20GW by 3Q26 and 24GW by 2028 through capital-light expansions. The Electrification division also plans to double its backlog (excluding Prolec) by 2028.

Key Risks to Outlook

Risks remain central to Curran’s valuation view. GEV faces sensitivity to GDP trends, shifts in electricity demand, and evolving AI data center needs.

Additional headwinds include policy uncertainty, intense competition from strong turbine OEMs, project bottlenecks, commodity price volatility, constrained utility capital expenditures, IP protection challenges, and the need to maintain investment-grade ratings.

Other Analyst Ratings

Oppenheimer analyst Colin Rusch upgraded GEV to Outperform with a new $855 price target, while UBS analyst Amit Mehrotra reiterated his Buy rating and lifted his price target from $760 to $835.

Additionally, Today GE Vernova and Seatrium secured a major TenneT contract for BalWin5, a 2.2 GW HVDC offshore grid link that will deliver North Sea wind power to Germany by 2032. Expected to power 2.75 million homes, the project strengthens Germany’s energy security.

GE Vernova will provide the HVDC technology and converter stations, while Seatrium will design, build, transport, and install the offshore platform.

GEV Price Action: GE Vernova shares were down 4.65% at $689.39 at the time of publication on Thursday. The stock is approaching its 52-week high of $731.00, according to Benzinga Pro data.

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