China Index Research Institute: The cumulative decline in residential rents in 50 cities from January to November increased to 3.04%

The Zhitong Finance App learned that on December 11, the China Index Research Institute released the summary and outlook for China's housing rental market in 2025. In 2025, residents' employment income expectations are still weak. Combined with the impact of the increase in the supply of guaranteed housing, the average residential rents in the 50 key cities fell by a cumulative total of 3.04% in January-November. In terms of policy, the central government sets the tone for optimizing the supply of affordable housing. The supply of guaranteed housing is expected to shift from large-scale preparation to the stage of required construction. Stable supply will help the industry run smoothly, and the implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations will guide the standardized development of the housing rental market.

Guided by the policy of cultivating market-based and specialized housing rental enterprises, housing rental enterprises have room for development. The expansion and expansion of rental housing REITs helps enterprises return capital, optimize asset structures, and form a scale effect. At the same time, the demand for tenants has changed from “having a house to live in” to “living in a good house,” and the supply of rental housing should focus on quality optimization. In this context, enterprises should seize the policy window period, participate in guaranteed housing raising, create high-quality products, standardize operations, establish tenants' trust in the brand, and at the same time seize public REITs policy opportunities to achieve high-quality development.

Trends in the residential rental price index

(1) Residential rents in 50 cities: The cumulative decrease in January-November was 3.04%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points over the same period last year

1. Overall rent: The cumulative decline in residential rents in 50 cities from January to November increased to 3. 0%. Rents have been falling continuously since March

Average residential rents in key cities continued to decline in 2005. Affected by weak expectations of residents' employment income and the increase in the supply of guaranteed housing, average residential rents in key cities have continued to decline slightly since this year. According to the 50-city residential rental price index, from January to November 2025, the average residential rents in 50 key cities across the country fell by a cumulative total of 3.04%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points over the same period last year. In November, the average residential rent in 50 cities was 34.4 yuan/square meter/month, down 0.60% month-on-month and 3.57% year-on-year.

Judging from monthly rent trends, rents stabilized for a short time in February, and the decline has widened since August. Judging from the operating situation throughout the year, average residential rents in key cities only stabilized for a short time during the “return to the city season” (February) after the Spring Festival. Among them, the month-on-month decline in rents narrowed in June-July, supported by the release of demand during the mid-year graduation season, and the month-on-month decline in rents increased since August.

Figure: Average residential rent and month-on-month rise and fall rate in 50 cities from July 2021 to November 2005

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

2. Urban rents: From January to November, residential rents in 49 out of 50 cities fell cumulatively, and the rent decline in first-tier cities was still relatively small

Judging from the rate of rise and fall in cities, residential rents fell cumulatively in 49 out of 50 cities from January to November. Specifically, from January to November 2025, the average residential rent in Urumqi alone increased cumulatively, with an increase of 0.76%. Among the falling cities, 7 cities, including Wenzhou, Sanya, Nanjing, and Haikou, had a cumulative decline of more than 5%; 19 cities including Hangzhou, Jiaxing, Changsha, and Fuzhou had a cumulative decline of 3%-5%; 20 cities including Kunming, Foshan, Changchun, and Guangzhou had a cumulative decline of 1%-3%; and the cumulative decline of Yinchuan, Dongguan, and Xining was within 1%.

Looking at each tier, average residential rents in all tier cities have declined, and the cumulative decline in rents in first-tier cities is relatively small. According to the 50-city residential rental price index, from January to November 2025, the average residential rent in first-tier cities fell by 2.06%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points narrower than the same period in 2024; the cumulative average rent in second-tier cities fell by 3.66%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points over the same period in 2024; and the average rent in Tier 3 and 4 represents a cumulative drop of 2.65%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the same period in 2024.

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

(2) Return on investment: The average rent-to-housing price ratio in the 50 cities in November was 2.23%, up 0.1 percentage points from the end of the previous year

In 2025, the ratio of rent to housing prices in key cities increased slightly. As of November 2025, the ratio of residential rent-to-housing prices in the 50 key cities was 2.23%, up 0.1 percentage points from December 2024 (2.12%). Specifically, of the 50 cities, only rent prices in Sanya, Taiyuan, Chengdu, and Jiaxing declined slightly compared to the end of 2024. The remaining 46 cities all increased. Among them, cities such as Xuzhou, Dongguan, Nantong, and Hohhot increased relatively large.

Figure: Rent-to-house ratio in 50 key cities in November 2025

Note: Rent-to-price ratio = average urban residential rent in November 2025 × 12 ÷ average urban second-hand housing price in November 2025.

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

As housing prices have continued to be adjusted in recent years, the degree of standardization, specialization, and quality of rental products have improved in the housing rental market. Combined with the rigid demand support of the housing rental market, the rent adjustment range has been relatively flat, and the ratio of rent to housing prices in key cities has continued to rise. In November 2025, the average rent-to-price ratio in the 50 key cities was 2.23%, up 0.25 percentage points from the low in early 2023, and the return on housing rental investment further improved.

Chart: Rental price ratio chart for 50 cities from September 2021 to November 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

Analysis of housing rental policies

During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China's housing rental market moved from a stage of rapid development to a stage of high-quality development. The construction of a “combined rental and purchase” housing system continued to deepen. The supply side emphasized affordable rental housing as a starting point to solve structural problems in the housing rental market, and introduced a number of policies on how to raise guaranteed housing and financial support. At the same time, since the launch of the pilot, the public REITs market has gradually moved from beginning to a stage of normalized distribution during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, and financial support policies have been continuously introduced, providing new channels for housing rental companies to finance and exit projects.

2025 is the year the “14th Five-Year Plan” comes to an end. The central government sets the tone for optimizing the supply of guaranteed housing, and various regions have broadened the channels for raising guaranteed housing through stock revitalization measures such as collection, storage and subleasing, and non-residential rents. In terms of financial support, the policy emphasizes expanding the scope of use of affordable housing reloans, and “Document 782” was introduced to promote the expansion and expansion of public rental housing REITs. In terms of industry supervision, the “Housing Rental Regulations” were introduced and implemented to promote the development of the industry in the direction of standardization and specialization. Local regulatory policies gradually cover the entire chain of rental activities such as rental housing filing, rental contract regulations, affordable housing allocation, and housing quality standards. At the same time, on the demand side, local governments are actively optimizing provident fund rental policies and issuing housing subsidies to reduce residents' rental burdens.

(1) Guaranteed housing supply: The policy orientation is shifting from expanding supply to optimizing supply. Acquiring existing commercial housing and subleasing is an important direction at present

During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the central government introduced several policies relating to the financing of guaranteed housing construction. The policy direction ranged from expanding the supply of guaranteed housing to optimizing the supply of guaranteed housing. Housing raising methods include housing renovation in urban villages, collective land construction, stock storage, non-residential rents, etc.

The 2021-2022 policy direction mainly focuses on expanding the supply of affordable rental housing to solve the housing problems of new citizens, young people and other groups. The 2023 policy emphasizes combining urban village renovation with affordable housing construction, promoting the raising of guaranteed housing, and exploring the use of land for collective construction to build guaranteed housing. The 2024 policy supports the collection and removal of inventory, and implements financial support policies such as affordable housing reloans and special debt collection and storage. Among them, it has already been used as guaranteed housing.

In 2025, the central government decided to optimize the supply of affordable housing. In June, the Central Office and the State Office issued “Opinions on Further Safeguarding and Improving People's Livelihood and Focusing on Resolving People's Urgent Needs”, which proposed “supporting all regions in coordinating funding channels, increasing the supply of affordable housing, and guiding and supporting social forces to operate long-term rental housing.” “Guide and support increasing the supply of dormitory-type and small-sized youth apartments that balance work and residence in affordable housing.” In August, the “Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Promoting High-Quality Urban Development” proposed “developing affordable housing according to local conditions. ” In October, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee reviewed and approved the “Proposal of the CPC Central Committee on Formulating the Fifteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development”, which proposed “optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage groups and families in need.” Minister of Housing and Construction Ni Hong's signed article entitled “Promoting High-Quality Real Estate Development” further clarified the need to “optimize the supply of affordable housing.” Improve the multi-level housing security system, which mainly focuses on public rental housing, affordable rental housing, and allotted affordable housing.”

Various ministries and departments have mentioned the acquisition of commercial housing stocks many times, and revitalizing the stock is still an important direction at present. The March “Report on the Work of the Government” clearly “revitalize existing land use and commercial housing, promote the acquisition of existing commercial housing, and give the city government greater autonomy in terms of acquisition subjects, prices, and uses.” In April, when researching talent apartments in Beijing, Premier Li Qiang once again emphasized that “the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing is an important gripper for stopping and stabilizing the real estate market, safeguarding and improving people's livelihood.” In May, the Central Office and the State Administration issued “Opinions on Continuing to Promote Urban Renewal Actions”, which emphasizes “supporting the use of existing inefficient land to build affordable housing, develop industries, and improve public service facilities.”

In terms of collecting and storing special bonds, the Ministry of Finance stated in January that “the policy of special debt to support the purchase of existing commercial housing for affordable housing is being studied urgently in cooperation with relevant industry authorities to refine the relevant measures and arrangements.” The March “2024 Report on the Implementation of China's Fiscal Policy” clearly “promote the promotion of special bonds to support land reserves and the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing.” In November, the “Report on the Implementation of China's Fiscal Policy in the First Half of 2025” mentioned that “all regions are actively expanding the investment areas of special bonds and the scope of use as project capital, focusing on investment and construction, land collection and storage, and the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing.” Judging from the situation of purchasing stock commercial housing with special bonds, according to monitoring data from the China Index, since May, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Shandong, and Hunan have successively issued special bonds to buy stock commercial housing, with a total issuance amount of 3.66 billion yuan as of November. From an operational perspective, the process for acquiring existing commercial housing is complicated, and the promotion cycle is relatively long. Non-pilot regions still need to submit to the Ministry of Housing and Construction and the Ministry of Finance for review before starting the project, and the pace of progress is still limited in the short term.

(2) Financial support: The housing rental finance support system has basically been formed, and policies promote the expansion and expansion of public rental housing REITs

During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, a housing rental finance support system was basically formed, including the central financial administration's subsidy funds for urban affordable housing projects, various types of rental housing credit services, affordable housing reloans, special debt storage, pilot real estate private equity funds, and public rental housing REITs.

In 2021, guaranteed housing was included in the scope of infrastructure public REITs pilot. In 2022 to 2023, policies to provide special financial support to various participants in the rental market were intensively introduced. At the same time, the pilot project of public mortgage REITs was rapidly promoted to achieve a breakthrough in bonded housing REITs from scratch, a pilot real estate private equity fund was launched, and a full-cycle credit policy was introduced. In 2024, 17 rental finance regulations were officially introduced, public REITs projects were normalized, and closed-loop housing rental finance was further improved.

In 2025, the central bank emphasized many times that efforts should be made to promote the implementation and effectiveness of the affordable housing reloan policy. The March “Report on the Work of the Government” and the May “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the First Quarter of 2025” all proposed “broadening the scope of use of affordable housing reloans”, which means that more eligible projects can receive policy funding support, and the types of housing acquired or expand from residential to commercial, office and other non-residential real estate, which will help revitalize market stock resources. The “China Monetary Policy Implementation Report” released in August and November all proposed that in the next phase, efforts will be made to promote the implementation of financial policy measures such as refinancing affordable housing.

The policy supports market-based long-term rental housing to actively explore public REITs distribution channels and supports cross-regional expansion. In September, the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Further Improving the Standardized Application and Recommendation of Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (REITs) in the Infrastructure Sector” (Development and Reform Office Investment (2025) No. 782), which continues to promote market expansion and expansion. The policy proposes to speed up the reporting of mature asset type projects such as affordable rental housing, actively study and explore distribution paths for new asset type projects with no recommended issuance cases, such as market-based rental housing. At the same time, it encourages listed infrastructure REITs to raise capital to purchase high-quality assets and infrastructure REITs through expansion and other methods New purchase projects can be declared 6 months after initial issuance and listing to support the integration of existing assets through expansion and other methods across regions.

Guaranteed housing REITs have entered the “first launch+expansion” two-wheel drive phase. As of November 2025, a total of 77 infrastructure REITs were first listed in China, with an initial launch scale of about 1993 billion yuan. Of these, 8 were bonded housing REITs, with an initial launch scale of about 12.1 billion yuan, accounting for about 6.1% of the issuance scale. At the same time, the public warranty housing REITs expansion process is also accelerating. In June, the Huaxia Beijing Guaranteed Housing REIT expansion project was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the guaranteed housing REITs entered the “first launch+expansion” two-wheel drive stage, which is expected to enter a new cycle of accelerated expansion.

Table: Significant events related to the launch of public rental housing REITs in 2025

Source: Comprehensive compilation by the China Index Research Institute

(3) Industry supervision: The “Housing Rental Regulations” have been officially implemented, and industry supervision has entered a new stage of “having laws to follow”

In September 2025, the Housing Rental Regulations were officially implemented. This regulation is the first national-level administrative regulation in the field of housing rental in China, fundamentally changing the legal environment of China's housing rental industry. The Regulations consist of 7 chapters and 50 articles, covering topics such as regulating rental leasing activities, regulating the behavior of housing rental enterprises, regulating the behavior of brokerage agencies, strengthening supervision and management, and strict accountability. Its importance is to provide institutional guarantees for the establishment of stable rental relationships by clarifying the rights and responsibilities of all parties and strengthening market supervision, thereby promoting the formation of a market environment with clear rights and responsibilities and a code of conduct, and laying the foundation of the rule of law for the long-term steady development of the housing rental market. In the future, with the improvement of the legal environment in the industry, the degree of standardization of the housing rental industry, and the degree of marketization and specialization of housing rental enterprises will further deepen, helping the housing rental market to play a greater role in protecting people's livelihood.

Tenants expect to strengthen industry supervision, standardize tenants' behavior, and implement “same right to rent and buy.” Tenant survey results show that tenants' policy requirements for supervision and management and regulation of the behavior of housing rental companies and brokerage agencies are urgent. The proportion of tenants surveyed who chose to “implement an official contract model” reached 40%, and the proportion of surveyed tenants who chose to “crack down on false housing”, “strengthen rent supervision and deposit custody” and “regularly publish rent guide prices” also accounted for more than 35%. In addition, renting has become an important way for new citizens and young people in core Tier 1 and 2 cities to meet their housing needs. “Implementing the same right to rent and buy” is an urgent need for tenants, and 37% of the tenants surveyed chose this option.

(4) Local policies: The supply-side shift from large-scale preparation to standardized management, and demand-side provident funds have increased their support for renting

According to monitoring by the China Research Institute, from January to November 2025, local governments in China introduced policies related to housing rental more than 150 times. Policies were introduced 10 or more times each month, with policies introduced nearly 20 times in May, July, and October. By city, first-tier cities have introduced policies about 40 times. Among second-tier cities, Chongqing, Tianjin, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Chengdu and other places have introduced more policies, all 3 times or more.

On the supply side, many places emphasize improving the “market+guarantee” housing supply system, and the policy orientation is shifting from large-scale preparation to standardized management. In terms of market cultivation, in 2025, many places will continue to emphasize improving the “market+guarantee” housing supply system in terms of policy direction, but there are certain differences in the affordable housing preparation path. Beijing emphasizes optimizing the supply of affordable housing, and Tier 1 and 2 cities such as Shanghai and Tianjin require expanding the supply of affordable rental housing to cope with housing pressure in large cities; while some third- and fourth-tier cities clearly adhere to the “when necessary to build, when necessary to order” principle, which emphasizes dynamically grasping the matching of guarantee targets and housing according to actual needs. In terms of housing raising, the 2025 housing raising policy is still mainly based on collection, storage and subleasing. At the same time, some cities are building housing through non-residential rents and revitalizing idle rural assets, etc., to increase the supply of rental housing while effectively revitalizing inefficient existing assets. In terms of standardized management, various regions have also actively introduced policies to standardize the management of the housing rental market, gradually covering the entire chain of rental activities, such as rental housing filing, rental contract regulations, affordable housing allocation, and housing quality standards.

On the demand side, provident fund support policies reduce residents' rental burdens, and many places have introduced policies such as talent settlement and rental housing settlement to stimulate rental demand. In terms of provident fund support, the policy mainly focuses on three aspects. One is to support the withdrawal of the Provident Fund for rent, the second is to increase the amount and frequency of Provident Fund withdrawals, and the third is to support direct rent payment by the Provident Fund. In terms of population and talent, some cities have introduced a tiered housing system for college graduates. They provide free accommodation for a certain period of time during job search and internships (such as youth posts), and can enjoy long-term employment rental discounts for a certain period of time after employment. At the same time, some cities support rental housing settlement, and some cities have adopted methods such as physical rent allocations and monetary subsidies to raise the level of housing security for people transferred from agriculture.

Market supply and demand trends

(1) Guaranteed housing development: Many places have completed the “14th Five-Year Plan” fund-raising goals for guaranteed housing, and the earnings of guaranteed housing REITs have remained stable

1. Guaranteed housing fund-raising: Many places have completed the “14th Five-Year Plan” fund-raising goals for guaranteed housing, and raise housing in the future “as needed to order and build”

During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, China made remarkable progress in the construction of its housing security system. On October 11, 2025, at the press conference of the State Information Office, Tung Jianguo, vice-minister of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, said that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the Ministry of Housing and Construction focused on safeguarding the basic housing needs of people in need, fully took into account differences in the actual situation of insured persons, established a multi-level housing security system including public rental housing, affordable rental housing, and distributed affordable housing, and made corresponding arrangements in the housing security system for new citizens and young people. Minister of Housing and Construction Ni Hong said that during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the country raised more than 11 million housing units (units) of various types of affordable housing and the renovation of dilapidated urban housing, benefiting more than 30 million people.

Judging from the scale of guaranteed housing raised, during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, the country plans to raise 8.7 million affordable rental housing units (units). By the end of 2023, about 5.73 million affordable rental housing units (units) had been prepared, achieving 66% of the “14th Five-Year Plan” target. According to the 2024 Statistical Bulletin on National Economic and Social Development, 1.8 million units (units) of affordable housing, affordable rental housing, and public rental housing for sale nationwide began throughout the year. In 2025, the methods for raising guaranteed housing were mainly stock conversion methods such as “collection, storage and sublease” and “non-residential to rent”. As of November 2025, some provinces and cities had completed the “14th Five-Year Plan” period.

Table: Status of completion of guaranteed housing raising plans in some provinces and cities during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period (unit: 10,000 units)

Note: Calculated data marked with*

Source: Local government websites, compiled by the China Index Research Institute

According to monitoring data, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing, Sichuan, Hubei, Guangxi, Guilin, Zhongshan, Tongliao, and Langfang have completed the “14th Five-Year Plan” rental housing raising targets. Some provinces and cities have yet to release the latest data, but overall, most provinces can complete the fund-raising tasks. It is expected that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, guaranteed housing will be raised more according to the “order as needed and built as needed” model, through a combination of stock conversion and new construction.

2. Guaranteed housing REITs: The operating performance of underlying assets has improved, and fund returns have remained stable

Project operation: The overall rental rate of the underlying assets of the four insured REITs rose to a high level in the past five quarters

According to the latest report for the third quarter of 2025 disclosed by various guaranteed housing REITs, as of the end of September 2025, the average occupancy rate of the eight guaranteed housing REITs was above 93%, and the operation was steady. Specifically, the underlying assets of CICC Xiamen Anju REIT continued to be basically fully leased, and the occupancy rate was basically the same as at the end of the second quarter of 2025. The average occupancy rate of the underlying assets of Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT and Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT declined slightly from the end of the second quarter of 2025. The average occupancy rate of the underlying assets of the four guaranteed housing REITs, including Huaxia Beijing Guaranteed Housing REIT, all rose to a high level in the past five quarters.

Table: Comparison of rental rates for the eight guaranteed housing REITs underlying asset projects in different periods

Data source: Public information on bonded housing REITs, comprehensive compilation by the China Index Research Institute

Judging from the comparison of the underlying assets of various guaranteed housing REITs, the operating performance of some projects improved in the third quarter. For example, Wenlong Homeland, the underlying asset of Huaxia Beijing Guaranteed Housing REIT, and Jiangwan Community, the bottom asset of Cathay Pacific Haitong City Investment Kuanting Guaranteed Housing REIT, had rental rates of 97.6% and 94.1% at the end of the third quarter, respectively, the highest in the past two years. Red Clay innovated the Shenzhen Anju REIT underlying asset of the Poly Champagne Garden project. The occupancy rate reached 98.5% at the end of the third quarter, up 5.8 percentage points from the end of the previous quarter and 7.7 percentage points higher than at the end of the previous quarter. China Merchants Fund's Shekou Rental Housing REIT Ground-Level Asset Forest Project had a rental rate of 97.6% at the end of the third quarter, an increase of 27.2 percentage points over the end of the previous year. After going through the centralized rental climbing phase, the occupancy rate overtook the Taizi Bay project.

Fund income: The overall earnings of guaranteed housing REITs remained stable in the third quarter. Only Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT's revenue and net profit declined slightly

The operating performance of guaranteed housing REITs was steady and improving in the third quarter. According to the latest disclosed data, according to a comparable scale, the overall revenue, net profit, and allocable amount of guaranteed housing REITs increased in the third quarter of 2025. Removing the impact of the expansion of guaranteed housing REITs in Huaxia Beijing, the overall performance of bonded housing REITs also showed a steady trend.

Table: Data on core financial indicators of public REITs for guaranteed housing

Data source: Public information on bonded housing REITs, comprehensive compilation by the China Index Research Institute

In terms of fund revenue, only Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT declined in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, Huaxia Beijing Guaranteed Housing REIT was affected by the successful expansion. Fund revenue increased by more than 50%, driving the overall revenue of Renting REITs to increase by more than 9%. After removing the fund, the overall revenue of Guaranteed Housing REITs increased by about 3% in the third quarter. Among them, only Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT's revenue declined slightly. The year-on-month declines were 4.5% and 3.7%, respectively.

In terms of net profit, net profit trends diverged between various guaranteed housing REITs products in the third quarter. Specifically, the net profit base of China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT and Huitianfu Shanghai Real Estate Rental Housing REIT was low, with month-on-month increases of more than 80%. The net profit of Huaxia Beijing Guaranteed Housing REIT all increased by more than 30% month-on-month, and the net profit of Huaxia Fund China Resources Youchao REIT all declined month-on-month.

In terms of the amount available for distribution, all guaranteed housing REITs increased month-on-month in the third quarter. Specifically, in the third quarter of 2025, the amount available for distribution of Huaxia Beijing Guaranteed Housing REIT and China Merchants Fund Shekou Rental Housing REIT increased a lot from month to month, to 41.2% and 14.6% respectively. The allotable amounts for other products all increased slightly month-on-month, with increases of less than 4%. On a year-on-year basis, with the exception of the significant increase in the allocable amount of guaranteed housing REITs in Huaxia and Beijing, the allotable amounts for other guaranteed housing REITs have all been relatively stable.

(2) Enterprise development pattern: The industry is expanding at an accelerated pace, and the scale of new start-ups has increased compared to the previous year. Local state-owned enterprises are still leading the way in growth

Driven by the policy, the housing rental industry has been upgraded in quality and expanded, and the degree of scale has increased. In the year the “14th Five-Year Plan” came to an end, the construction of China's “rental and purchase” housing system continued to be deepened, and the construction of affordable rental housing progressed steadily. Policies such as “collection, storage and sublease” and “non-residential housing conversion and rent” revitalized the stock and increased the supply of rental housing while bringing development opportunities to housing rental enterprises. The introduction and implementation of the “Housing Rental Regulations” pushed the industry forward in the direction of standardization, marketization and specialization. At the same time, bonded housing REITs have entered the “initial launch+expansion” two-wheel drive stage. Market-based long-term rental housing actively explores public REITs distribution paths, broadens corporate financing channels, and provides solid financial support for enterprise development. The ratio of residential rent-to-housing prices in key cities continues to rise, and the return on housing rental investment has further improved, attracting more market players to actively deploy. Leading companies accelerate resource integration and business expansion, and consolidate their leading position in the industry.

The scale of new operations and management all increased compared to the previous year. According to monitoring data from the China Index Research Institute, as of November 2025, the total number of properties opened by the top 30 enterprises in the country reached 1.409 million, an increase of 153,000 units over the end of 2024, an increase of 12,000 units over the same period of the previous year, and the cumulative number of managed TOP30 companies reached 2.07 million, an increase of 187,000 rooms over the end of 2024, an increase of 47,000 units over the same period last year.

Table: Number of properties opened and managed by TOP30 housing rental companies as of November 2025

Data source: Middle Index Data CREIS

By type, the housing rental industry has gradually formed a pattern of leading housing enterprises in scale, with local state-owned enterprises dominating guarantees, and entrepreneurship departments and hotel departments focusing on asset-light operations. The advantages of various types of long-term rental enterprises complement each other, meet diversified market needs, and promote high-quality development of the industry.

Housing enterprises are long-term rental apartment companies that accurately lay out incremental markets while revitalizing existing assets through multiple cooperation models , “combining priorities” to achieve steady expansion and leading the scale. In terms of incremental development, some housing enterprises are long-term rental companies focusing on core Tier 1 and 2 cities to expand their scale through land acquisition, development, and self-owned operations. In terms of inventory revitalization, housing enterprises are long-term rental enterprises that expand their management scale by transforming their own assets or cooperating with local state-owned enterprises. Overall, housing enterprises have outstanding advantages in scale as long-term rental enterprises, and their leading position in the industry is relatively stable. According to monitoring by the Central Intelligence Agency, as of November 2025, the total number of long-term rental enterprises operating in the top 30 housing enterprises reached 655,000 units, an increase of 53,000 units over the end of 2024; among the top 30 enterprises with management scale, the total management scale of housing enterprises reached 958,000, an increase of 81,000 units over the end of 2024.

Local state-owned enterprises and long-term rental enterprises are leading the supply of guaranteed housing with policy support. Relying on resource integration and platform advantages, they have increased the supply of guaranteed housing through “collection, storage and subleasing”, etc., and the scale of operation and management has increased markedly. According to monitoring by the CIA, as of November 2025, the number of long-term rental enterprises in local state-owned enterprises had increased to 11, with a business scale of 322,000, an increase of 143,000 compared to the end of 2024. Among the top 30 enterprises with management scale, the number of long-term rental enterprises in local state-owned enterprises increased to 10, with a management scale of 473,000, an increase of 116,000 from the end of 2024.

Long-term rental companies in the Department of Entrepreneurship and Hotels rely on years of accumulated operating experience and brand reputation to achieve scale expansion through asset-light export and medium asset trusteeship. According to monitoring by the China Financial Services Institute, as of November 2025, the management scale of long-term rental enterprises in the Department of Entrepreneurship and the Department of Hospitality was 310,000 and 210,000, respectively, among the top 30 enterprises with management scale.

(3) Rental demand: The proportion of people planning to renew leases after the lease expires has increased compared to mid-year, but renting is still a transitional choice for most respondents

In order to fully reflect residents' rental conditions and understand residents' current rental preferences and pain points, the China Research Institute has conducted a national tenant questionnaire survey every six months since June 2022 to analyze and summarize tenant characteristics and rental preferences. At the end of 2025, a total of 5,823 samples of valid tenants were withdrawn from the National Tenant Questionnaire Survey.

1. Tenant characteristics: Highly educated and newly graduated tenants are still the main customer base for long-term rental apartments, and the share share ratio in first-tier cities is higher than in other cities

According to the survey results, 54% of the surveyed tenants were between 25-34 years old, 83% had a bachelor's or college degree, 68% graduated within 5 years, and 44% of the surveyed tenants had a monthly income distribution of between 5,000 and 10,000 yuan.

In terms of rental options, 72% of the surveyed tenants chose to rent the whole house. Among them, the share rent (including bed and room) ratio in first-tier cities was higher than in other cities. 50% of the surveyed tenants chose to rent individual properties. The proportion of tenants who chose decentralized and centralized apartments was 33% and 14% respectively. The proportion of tenants in first-tier cities renting individual housing was higher than in other cities. The surveyed tenants in provincial capitals and prefecture-level cities and urban areas rented more decentralized and centralized apartments. Combined with tenant education, over 20% of surveyed tenants with a master's degree or above rent centralized apartments, accounting for a significantly higher proportion than tenants with a bachelor's degree or below. The proportion of surveyed tenants within 1 year of graduation and 1-3 years of graduation renting decentralized and centralized apartments was significantly higher than that of other types of tenants.

Judging from the rent level, the share of tenants in decentralized apartments and centralized apartments with monthly rents above 2,000 yuan is 57% and 66% respectively, which is significantly higher than individual housing. Judging from the rental income ratio, the rent income ratio of individual housing tenants is the highest between 10% and 20%, at 45%; while the rent income ratio for tenants renting decentralized and centralized long-term rental apartments is more distributed in the 20%-30% range, indicating that the surveyed tenants who rent long-term rental apartments are more willing to bear a higher rent burden for the improvement of rental quality.

Data source: China Index Survey

2. Rental preferences: The rate of planned renewal after the lease expires has increased slightly compared to the year. Less than 20% of tenants plan to rent within 3 years

Rental exchange plan: Affected by expectations of falling rents, etc., only 40% of tenants plan to renew their rent after expiration, but the proportion is slightly higher than the previous year

The overall percentage of tenants planning to renew their leases after their lease expires remains low. Housing rents in key cities have declined in the past two years due to factors such as weak employment income expectations and increased market supply. With tenants taking more initiative, only 43% of the tenants surveyed said they plan to renew their leases after the current lease expires, but compared to the survey results at the end of last year, there was a slight improvement in market stability. Tenants who rent individual properties are the most stable, with 47% planning to renew their rent, while those renting centralized apartments and decentralized apartments plan renewal rates of 43% and 37%, respectively.

Figure: Reasons for tenants to switch homes in different properties

Data source: China Index Survey

The decline in market rents is still a common reason why tenants plan to exchange rents. Among them, tenants surveyed who rent personal properties are more sensitive to rent, and about 51% are therefore due to rent exchanges. The proportion of tenants surveyed who chose to exchange their rent due to “declining income expectations” and “job changes” was also relatively high. In addition, surveyed tenants who rent individual properties and centralized apartments are in need of improving the quality of their living.

Table: Types of current rental housing and types of housing planned to rent in the future

Data source: China Index Survey

Looking at the housing types that the surveyed tenants plan to exchange for rent in the future, the proportions of individual housing, decentralized apartments, and centralized apartment tenants who plan to continue to rent similar properties are 78%, 66%, and 24%, respectively, indicating that tenants of individual housing and decentralized apartments are more satisfied with the current housing types. Of the centralized apartment tenants who plan to exchange their rent, 58% want to rent decentralized apartments in the future.

Figure: Which aspect of the apartment is centralized apartment tenants least satisfied with

Data source: China Index Survey

In response to the problem that centralized apartments are more willing to rent out ordinary houses, the survey results show that the main pain point is not the price, but mainly due to poor indoor environment and living comfort. Poor apartment types/poor ventilation, poor sound insulation, and little storage space rank high. In particular, 35% of tenants planning to switch to decentralized apartments think “poor apartment type/poor ventilation” is the biggest problem with centralized apartments. Compared with residential homes, centralized apartments converted from non-residential housing are more likely to have problems with air quality, noise, space, etc. Long-term rental apartment operators can work hard on product optimization and value-added services to improve tenant retention rates.

Factors of concern: Centralized apartment tenants generally pay attention to rental quality and protection of rights, and demand for indoor facilities such as kitchen, storage, and video is high

Figure: Key factors for tenants in different properties to consider when renting

Data source: China Index Survey

Regarding the main elements that tenants are concerned about when renting, in addition to the surrounding supporting conditions being common reasons, there are also certain differences in the concerns of different types of housing. Individual tenants pay more attention to commuting time and rent levels, while long-term rental apartment tenants pay more attention to the distance from the property to the subway. In addition, tenants of centralized long-term rental apartments pay more attention to the community environment, and tenants of decentralized long-term rental apartments pay more attention to commuting time.

Figure: Reasons why tenants of centralized long-term rental apartments choose to rent their current apartments

Data source: China Index Survey

According to the survey, tenants of centralized apartments generally pay attention to the quality of tenancy and standardization of transactions, and the rental demand has been upgraded from “living with a house” to “living with peace of mind.” More than 35% of tenants chose centralized long-term rental apartments due to convenient commuting and high space/privacy. Nearly 30% of the tenants surveyed also valued the services and public area layout of centralized apartments. 32% of surveyed tenants chose centralized apartments due to more regulations such as contract filing and rent supervision, which indicates that the surveyed tenants pay more attention to transaction safety and protection of their rights and interests. Long-term rental apartment operators should refine product and service details, actively embrace compliance and supervision, and consolidate the two core competencies of quality and standardization.

Figure: The most anticipated interior configuration of centralized long-term rental apartment tenants

Data source: China Index Survey

The tenants interviewed are in high demand for furniture and appliances in the kitchen, storage and organization, video and entertainment, etc. In terms of furniture, in addition to regular equipment such as beds/closets/desks and chairs, the surveyed tenants needed the dining table the most, accounting for 51%. Bedside tables, drying racks, and dressing tables were also the furniture most needed by the surveyed tenants, accounting for between 30% and 40% (inclusive). In terms of household appliances, over 40% of surveyed tenants needed kitchen appliances such as induction cookers and microwave ovens, and the proportion of surveyed tenants who needed projectors and televisions ranged from 30% (inclusive) to 40%.

Housing planning: Less than 20% of tenants plan to rent a house within 3 years. Renting a house is a transition option to face financial pressure in the short term

Judging from the tenants' housing plans for the next 3 years, renting is still a transitional choice for most tenant groups. According to the survey, 72% of surveyed tenants said they would choose to buy a home locally or in a city with lower housing prices after saving up for the down payment; only 16% of tenants plan to rent a house all the time.

Data source: China Index Survey

Looking at different housing types, the proportion of individual tenants planning to rent a house all the time is relatively high, at 25%, while the proportion of tenants surveyed in decentralized and centralized apartments who plan to rent a house all the time is less than 8%. Looking at different age groups, the proportion of surveyed tenants aged 20-29 and over who plan to rent a house is relatively high in all age groups, 19% and 31%, respectively. Among those planning to buy a house, those aged 20-29 prefer to buy a house locally, while those under 20 often plan to buy a house in a city with lower housing prices.

Regarding the reasons why tenants without a home plan to rent a house for 3 years, the survey results showed that the two main factors were high economic pressure, and the lack of cost-effectiveness/optimism about the real estate market, accounting for 80% in total.

Figure: Reasons why tenants of different properties plan to keep renting for the next 3 years

Data source: China Index Survey

Looking at the housing type, 62% of the surveyed tenants who rent personal properties chose to be under high financial pressure, and 53% of the tenants surveyed who rent decentralized apartments chose to buy a house that was not cost-effective or optimistic about the real estate market. At the same time, as the housing system combining rental and purchase is being improved, the housing rental market is developing in the direction of standardization and specialization, and the same right to rent and purchase is gradually being implemented in some cities. Renting has become an active choice for some tenants. In total, about 10% of the tenants surveyed believe that renting is “more flexible,” “has a higher quality of life,” and “can enjoy more and more public services.”

Market development trend outlook

(1) Trend outlook: Policies promote standardized market development, financial support drives the realization of asset values, and helps the industry to circulate in a virtuous cycle

1. During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, the supply of guaranteed housing is expected to shift from large-scale preparation to the stage of required construction. Stable supply will help the industry run smoothly

In October 2025, the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee proposed “promoting high-quality development of real estate” in “Strengthening Safeguarding and Improving People's Livelihood, and Firmly Promoting the Common Prosperity of All People” to clarify the future development direction of the real estate industry. The “15th Five-Year Plan Proposal” details development priorities, including “optimizing the supply of affordable housing to meet the basic housing needs of urban wage groups and families in need.” Minister Ni Hong's signed article “Promoting the High-Quality Development of Real Estate” mentions the need to “improve the multi-level housing security system, which mainly focuses on public rental housing, affordable rental housing, and allotted affordable housing.”

During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, with the continuous improvement of the “rental and purchase” housing system, housing rental will still be an important way to meet the housing needs of young people, new citizens and other groups. There is room for development in the housing rental market, especially in terms of housing security. Core Tier 1 and 2 cities may be dominated by guaranteed housing. In terms of the supply of guaranteed housing, guaranteed housing raised for construction during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period will gradually be put on the market, and market supply may increase in the short term. During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, the financing of guaranteed housing requires “construction and purchase”. The supply scale is determined according to local conditions. The supply of guaranteed housing may gradually stabilize, which will help the industry run smoothly. At the same time, tenants are no longer satisfied with “having a house to live in”, but are paying more attention to the comfort, safety, and convenience of living space. Therefore, the supply of guaranteed housing should focus on quality optimization, and guaranteed housing also requires a “good house”.

2. The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations will promote the development of the industry in the direction of standardization, marketization and specialization

During the “14th Five-Year Plan” period, under the “merger of rental and purchase” policy, China's housing rental market achieved relatively rapid development, but there were still problems such as the low proportion of specialized enterprises, irregular behavior of market participants, and unstable rental relationships. Minister Ni Hong's signed article mentions the need to “standardize the development of the rental market, cultivate market-based and specialized housing rental enterprises, improve industry supervision and service capabilities, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of leasing parties in accordance with the law”, pointing out the direction for the sustainable and healthy development of the housing rental market.

In terms of industry supervision, the “Housing Rental Regulations” were officially implemented in September 2025. The aim is to regulate housing rental activities, protect the legal rights and interests of parties involved in housing rental activities, stabilize housing rental relationships, promote high-quality development of the housing rental market, and promote the speedy establishment of a housing system combining rental and purchase. At present, some provinces and cities have introduced policies relating to industry supervision. It is expected that during the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, more local governments will follow up on the Housing Rental Regulations, formulate implementation rules, and guide the standardized development of the rental market.

In terms of enterprise cultivation, judging from the policy orientation of marketization and specialization, long-term rental apartment enterprises in China still have a lot of room for development. Promoting the development of professional housing rental enterprises will help improve the quality of housing rental products and services, and promote the high-quality development of the housing rental market. Future policies are expected to continue to increase support for housing rental policies from the perspectives of finance, market development, and non-residential rent-to-rent changes.

3. Public REITs, ABS for holding real estate, etc. broaden corporate financing channels and attract more social capital to enter the housing rental market

In September 2025, the “Notice of the General Office of the National Development and Reform Commission on Further Accomplishing the Normalized Application and Recommendation Work for Real Estate Investment Trust Funds (REITs) in the Infrastructure Sector” (“Document 782”) was issued, which continues to promote the expansion and expansion of the public REITs market, actively supports the expansion of issued products, shortens the application period for expansion, and allows the integration of assets across regions through expansion. With policy support, the issuance and expansion of public REITs products for rental housing is expected to expand at an accelerated pace. On the market side, in 2025, public rental housing REITs and hold-type real estate ABS all achieved a leap from “initial launch” to “initial issue+expansion”, forming a pattern of complementary public offering and private equity, jointly broadening corporate financing channels, increasing the willingness of enterprises to participate in rental housing development and operation, and also helping enterprises to form a scale effect.

(2) Strategic suggestions: Actively revitalize existing assets, improve the quality and operation level of rental products, and seize real estate finance opportunities

1. Participate in guaranteed housing raising through market-based long-term rental housing conversion and stock asset revitalization

During the “15th Five-Year Plan” period, housing rental companies can seize policy opportunities to “optimize the supply of affordable housing” and participate in guaranteed housing raising. On the one hand, housing enterprises are long-term rental apartment companies that can raise rental housing through multiple channels by obtaining land for collective management and construction, remodeling their own commercial assets, and participating in the revitalization of other companies' existing assets. On the other hand, we can focus on local policies and rules such as how to certify guaranteed housing projects, and transform our market-based rental housing into guaranteed housing in order to obtain policy support such as tax concessions, low-interest loans, and domestic water and electricity prices. Local state-owned enterprises can rely on resource advantages and financing advantages to focus on participating in guaranteed housing raising through collection, savings and subleasing, etc., to promote asset revitalization of their own or related projects.

2. Build “good house” rental housing products and improve the level of standardized operation

Currently, the housing rental market is in a stage of incremental expansion and transformation from stock quality improvement, which is in line with the policy direction of promoting the construction of safe, comfortable, green, and intelligent “good houses.” According to the 2025 tenant survey results, the main reason tenants are switching from centralized apartments to ordinary homes is poor comfort. Therefore, housing rental companies need to thoroughly study the rental needs of segmented customer groups and build “good houses” for rental housing by optimizing apartment design and functional zoning, upgrading indoor facilities, creating shared spaces, and constructing diversified value-added service systems.

Furthermore, research results show that in addition to convenient commuting and high space separation/privacy, operating regulations are important factors for tenants to consider when choosing centralized apartments. The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations has provided a clear institutional framework and code of conduct for the housing rental market, marking the further improvement of China's housing rental management system. Housing rental companies should respond positively to industry regulatory policies, raise the level of standardized operation, protect tenants' rights and interests, and thus establish tenants' trust in the brand.

3. Seize real estate finance opportunities and achieve a closed loop in the business model

In 2025, the issuance of bonded housing public REITs progressed steadily, and the expansion progress was accelerated. Policies supported the expansion and expansion of rental housing REITs. Housing rental companies should make full use of financial instruments, especially the policy window that “allows the integration of assets across regions through expansion” to achieve capital return and optimize asset structures. At the same time, housing rental enterprises can attract long-term capital to jointly build investment platforms by participating in the establishment of housing rental funds, form a “capital+industry” synergy effect, and achieve a shift from heavy to light.