Southwest Securities: Private rockets help China's satellite networking, recommend Holevo (688682.SH)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Southwest Securities released a research report saying that private rocket launches and strong policy support have had a great impact on sector trends. Currently, China's commercial aerospace is still in the initial development stage. The development of private rocket enterprises has received great attention from the market. The expansion of private rocket carrying capacity determines the development speed of China's commercial aerospace industry chain to a certain extent. At the same time, national policy support can effectively solve key problems in industry development and help commercial aerospace development. The bank advises investors to continue to pay attention to sector development and recommend the relevant target Holevo (688682.SH).

The main views of Southwest Securities are as follows:

Global satellite frequency orbit resources are limited, and the United States is leading the way in terms of the number of satellites in orbit. Currently, China is simultaneously advancing the 20,000 star Internet satellite constellation plan

In 2024, the world carried out a total of 263 space launch missions, an increase of 18% over the previous year. China and the US have become the core forces leading the development of the world space industry, accounting for 86% of the total number of global launches. By the end of 2024, the total number of US spacecraft in orbit accounted for 75.9% of the world's total, continuing to rank first in the world. The number of Chinese spacecraft in orbit reached 1,094, accounting for only 9.4% of the global total. According to the regulations of the International Telecommunication Union, with regard to satellite orbital positions and key frequency band resources, countries compete for coordinated use according to the “first come, first take” rule. China is also catching up at an accelerated pace, and projects such as the “G60 Starlink” program and the GW constellation are progressing one after another.

Private rocket companies are active to help our country's satellite network

There is an order of magnitude gap between the number of current plans and the current launch scale and actual carrying capacity, and the “many stars and few arrows” problem is highlighted. The competitive pattern in China's commercial space market is a “national team+civil team” twin-line development. In 2024, China completed a total of 68 rocket launches, with the national team accounting for 82.4% and private rocket companies accounting for 17.65%. Beginning in 2025, China's various private rockets will enter their first flight, gradually solving the capacity problem. At the same time, in the field of recyclable rockets, private enterprises are actively planning. On December 3, Suzake-3 (a reusable liquid oxymethane rocket developed by Blue Rocket Aerospace) completed its first flight, completed its mission according to procedures, and entered the scheduled orbit at level 2. Zhang Changwu, founder and CEO of Blue Rocket Aerospace, once predicted that as recyclable rocket technology matures, China's commercial space transportation costs will drop below 30,000 yuan per kilogram, which is a significant reduction from about 100,000 yuan per kilogram of traditional rockets, and the cost of launching a satellite will drop further, helping China to network satellites.

Risk warning: National and industry policy risks, risk of insufficient launch vehicle capacity, technical risk, increased risk of industry competition, etc.