Cathay Pacific Haitong: Wrapping paper continues to rise in November, cultural paper needs to pick up

The Zhitong Finance App learned that as of November 26, Cathay Pacific Haitong released a research report saying that as of November 26, the average market price of 70g wood pulp high white double adhesive paper was 4,731 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from month to month, a decrease of 0.06%. Some paper companies shouted at the beginning of the month, but dealers were cautious in preparing stocks, and follow-up on new orders was limited. In terms of box tiles, as of November 26, the average monthly price of 120g AA grade corrugated paper in China was 3164 yuan/ton, up 6.35% month-on-month and 16.71% year-on-year. In early November, the inventory of upstream paper mills was low, and the intention to raise prices was obvious, providing strong support for prices; in the middle and late stages, some large-scale paper mill installations were repaired for 3-8 days, reducing supply and further consolidating price support; large-scale paper mills continued to rise in price policies, which continued to boost market bullish sentiment.

Cathay Pacific Haitong's main views are as follows:

Cultural paper: paper mills raise prices to stabilize terminal prices, and weak demand continues

As of November 26, the average price of 70g wood pulp high-white double adhesive paper in November was 4,731 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the previous month. First, some paper companies shouted up at the beginning of the month, but dealers were cautious and follow-up on new orders was limited; second, apart from brief maintenance of some production lines in Jiangsu during the month, most large-scale paper mills had stable production and sufficient market supply; third, publishing tenders were progressing one after another, with lower tender prices in individual regions, increasing the wait-and-see mentality in the market; fourth, the upstream wood pulp market rose and fell one after another. The conductivity effect of pulp and paper weakened during the month.

White cardboard: price increases push prices to continue to rise, inventory levels are low

As of November 26, the average monthly transaction price in the 250-400g flat sheet white cardboard market was 4194 yuan/ton, up 3.30% from October, up 0.85 percentage points, and up 0.87% from the same period in '24. First, cost pressure is still strong. The November price notice from paper mills continues to rise, which plays an important role in driving up market prices; second, orders from manufacturers are full, and inventories remain low, which is conducive to the transmission of paper mill prices to the downstream; third, traders are reluctant to sell, and shipments actively follow suit in the early stages, but terminal order performance is flat, and the trend gradually stabilized in the middle to late stages.

Box tile paper: paper mills continue to rise, profits are under pressure

As of November 26, the average monthly price of 120g AA grade corrugated paper in China was 3164 yuan/ton, up 6.35% month-on-month and 16.71% year-on-year. First, the inventory of upstream paper mills was low in early November, and the intention to raise prices was obvious, providing strong support for prices; in mid-late November, some large-scale paper mills were overhauled for 3-8 days, reducing supply and further consolidating price support; secondly, large-scale paper mills continued to increase the price policy, which continued to boost the bullish sentiment in the market. Waste paper, which is superimposed as the main raw material, has maintained an upward trend, and the cost still strongly supports paper prices. Finally, although the order situation from downstream packaging manufacturers is average, due to the continuous rise in raw paper prices, packaging factories are quite motivated to replenish stocks. As the inventory of some packaging plants gradually increased to a high level, the pace of procurement weakened.

Wood pulp: The external market of broadleaf pulp continues to rise, and the rise in domestic prices is slowing

In November, the average price trend in the imported wood pulp spot market diverged, and overall market trading was dominated by immediate demand. First, the price of the main contract price of pulp futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged and fell, and traders were struggling to keep up and falling due to active cost pressure, driving the average price of imported softwood pulp upward; second, the external market of imported broadleaf pulp continued to rise and strong expectations, causing sellers to hesitate to sell, supporting the continued upward trend in average prices; third, there was a limited supply of imported natural color paste that could be sold at low prices, further driving up the price; fourth, the price of imported machine pulp declined narrowly due to demand constraints.

Risk Alerts

Overseas wood pulp supply chain disruptions, downstream consumer demand falls short of expectations, etc.