At the annual strategy meeting held by Zhongtai Securities, Li Xunlei, the chief economist of China and Thailand International, said that in 2026, the total room for monetary policy easing was limited, and interest rate cuts faced constraints such as low interest spreads and idle capital transfers. It is expected that the 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate will be lowered by 10-20 bps; currently, the weighted deposit reserve ratio has been reduced to 6.2%, close to the hidden lower limit of 5%. At the same time, the central bank's liquidity investment tools have been improved and are expected to drop 1-2 times throughout the year; at the same time, the debt market is expected to ease with depreciation pressure on the RMB. Due to factors such as differentiation, funding may be difficult in 2026 The apparent tightening in March 2025 was repeated.

Zhitongcaijing · 3d ago
At the annual strategy meeting held by Zhongtai Securities, Li Xunlei, the chief economist of China and Thailand International, said that in 2026, the total room for monetary policy easing was limited, and interest rate cuts faced constraints such as low interest spreads and idle capital transfers. It is expected that the 7-day reverse repurchase interest rate will be lowered by 10-20 bps; currently, the weighted deposit reserve ratio has been reduced to 6.2%, close to the hidden lower limit of 5%. At the same time, the central bank's liquidity investment tools have been improved and are expected to drop 1-2 times throughout the year; at the same time, the debt market is expected to ease with depreciation pressure on the RMB. Due to factors such as differentiation, funding may be difficult in 2026 The apparent tightening in March 2025 was repeated.