Dongxing Securities: Anti-inward rebound drives a recovery in fundamentals in strong cyclical sectors, focusing on sectors benefiting from anti-inward rolls and high-certainty individual stocks

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongxing Securities released a research report saying that looking back at the trend of the transportation industry this year, as of December 8, 2025, the transportation industry sector ranked lower in Shenwan's Tier 1 industry, and the trend was clearly weaker than the general market. Segmented into sub-sectors, the trend of heavy assets+weak cycle sectors such as highways, railways, and ports has been relatively weak since the beginning of the year, while cyclical sectors such as shipping and aviation are relatively strong. The implementation of anti-domestic policies in the second half of the year had a positive impact on the stock prices of the strong cycle sector of the transportation industry.

Dongxing Securities's main views are as follows:

2026 outlook: Focus on sectors benefiting from counterinward rebound transactions and high-certainty individual stocks

The bank believes that similar to the second half of this year, what the industry needs to focus on in 2026 is still the two main lines of anti-domestic demand and high certainty. This year, the level of attention paid to anti-domestic rolls has increased markedly at the national level. The impact of anti-domestic rolls on the industry is likely to be prolonged, and it will have an important impact on stock price trends in related industries in '26. Therefore, the bank suggests continuing to focus on relevant sectors that benefit from anti-domestic rolls, including aviation, express delivery, and intraregional shipping; in weak cyclical fields where anti-domestic rolls have relatively little impact, the bank believes that high certainty is the main reason investors allocate this type of asset, so the bank believes that individual stocks that also meet high dividend ratios and low debt ratios (or low capital expenses) will be relatively more popular.

Express delivery sector: anti-internal roll drives up prices, profitability is expected to continue to recover

Since the express delivery industry's backlash, the profitability of the industry has continued to rise, mainly reflected in the continuous increase in single ticket prices. At the same time, the phenomenon of exchanging price for volume since 2024 has been curbed. Leading express delivery companies voluntarily abandoned some of their low-price or loss-making businesses. The volume growth rate declined markedly in the second half of the year, achieving “squeezing moisture.”

The bank believes that the current express delivery sector cycle is in the early stages of the upward cycle. Under the general environment of anti-domestic demand, the intensity of price competition in the industry is expected to remain low. Due to the declining growth rate of the industry and the shift from the incremental market to the stock market, the advantages of express delivery companies with higher service quality and the ability to provide differentiated and targeted services will expand in the current environment. Therefore, in terms of individual stocks, the bank focuses on industry leaders Zhongtong Express (02057), Yuantong Express, and Shentong Express, which continues to improve in profitability.

Aviation sector: domestic demand side is gradually being repaired, focusing on the transformation from high passenger occupancy rates to high ticket prices

Since the second quarter of this year, aviation sector performance has improved markedly. On the one hand, this is due to relatively low oil prices this year, and on the other hand, thanks to supply-side control of airlines and airline maintenance of ticket prices. Airlines are still cautious about aircraft procurement in 2025, and this cautious attitude is likely to continue until 2026. After entering 2025, airline passenger occupancy rates and fuel seat kilometer revenue both increased year-on-year compared to 2024. This shows that the impact of long-term low supply-side growth on the supply and demand relationship on the industry is gradually increasing. It is being transformed from simply boosting passenger occupancy rates to high ticket prices, and the industry's profit flexibility is expected to gradually be unleashed. The bank believes that when the overall operating indicators of the industry rise, the revenue and profit flexibility of the three major airlines is significantly higher than that of medium-sized airlines, and the marginal improvement will be even more significant. Therefore, it is recommended to focus on the profitability of the three major airlines.

Expressway sector: Focus on the “high dividend ratio+low debt ratio” target

Since the second half of this year, stock prices in the expressway sector have been drastically adjusted. The main reason is that the downward trend in interest rates on treasury bonds has been contained, and market risk appetite has rebounded; at the same time, PE valuations in the A-share highway sector have indeed been at a historically high level after continuing to rise. However, after major adjustments in the third quarter, the price-performance ratio of expressway stocks rebounded. The bank previously advised investors to pay attention to investment opportunities with high dividends in Hong Kong stocks, but as the A to H premium ratio for high-speed stocks listed in the two places continues to narrow, the bank believes that the high dividend allocation can gradually return to A shares.

At the same time, the bank found that after experiencing adjustments in the third quarter, investors showed stronger risk aversion when allocating expressway stocks, mainly reflected in relatively weak corporate trends with higher balance ratios, or higher subsequent capital expenditure, and high uncertainty. Therefore, the bank believes that high-speed companies with a “high dividend ratio+low debt ratio (or excessive capital expenditure)” are expected to receive more attention from the market for some time to come. The bank's proposal is to focus on individual stocks with high dividend ratios and balance ratios within a reasonable range, such as the Wantong Expressway, Guangdong Expressway A, and China Merchants Highway. If there are high requirements for the stability of the dividend amount, it can focus on the Ninghai-Shanghai Expressway.

Risk warning: changes in industry policies, declining macroeconomic growth, large fluctuations in oil prices and exchange rates, geopolitical risks, etc.