Guojin Securities: Embrace the Constellation of Thousand Sails to Target Water Sellers of High Barrier Components during the Infrastructure Explosion Period

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that based on SpaceX's verified monopoly position of the launch terminal and the monetization path of the StarLink giant constellation, the core investment logic of A-share commercial aerospace can be summarized as: embracing the infrastructure explosion period of the Thousand Sails Constellation and locking in water sellers of high-barrier components. In terms of time, China is on the eve of a network similar to SpaceX 2018-2020. As the G60 Qianfan and GW State Grid enter an intensive launch period, satellite manufacturing is shifting from laboratory customization to automobile assembly line production. Before liquid recyclable rocket technology was fully mature, the most definitive alpha benefit in the industrial chain came from high-value satellite core stand-alone units and payloads with high entry barriers. Suppliers that can provide generalized power supplies, communications, and attitude control systems will take the lead in delivering results.

The essence of SpaceX is not a traditional aerospace manufacturer, but a space logistics and infrastructure monopoly that applies the first principle (breaking the superstition that rockets must be expensive, breaking the stereotype of single-use, breaking material choices, and not seeking perfection and rapid iteration) to the ultimate space logistics and infrastructure monopoly. It built a self-reinforcing commercial closed loop: it used Falcon 9's unrivaled launch cost advantage to build Starlink, the world's largest space communication network, and used the huge cash flow generated by these two to support the most ambitious engineering project in human history, Starship Starship.

Moat analysis: SpaceX's core competitiveness stems from the deep integration of three dimensions.

Cost Barriers: Unrivaled Reusable Economics. Through the complete first-level reuse of Falcon 9, SpaceX changed the space launch from a custom craft to an industrial standard. The marginal cost of internal launches has been reduced to nearly 15 million US dollars, and the gross margin can be as high as 68% when the number of reuse missions reaches 5 times. This cost structure allows SpaceX to have pricing power in the face of traditional military giants such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin. This barrier is not a patent barrier, but a scale effect barrier to manufacturing and operation. Even if competitors build recyclable rockets, they cannot replicate the data and supply chain efficiency accumulated by SpaceX's 100+ launches per year.

Manufacturing barriers: vertical integration and advanced manufacturing systems. From engines (Merlin/Raptor), arrow structures, and laser communication modules to spacesuits and flight software, SpaceX has achieved more than 80% self-development and production. Although the vertical integration strategy was a huge investment in the early stages, it brought extremely high iteration speed and cost control ability in the later stages. This chain dominance enables it to update spacecraft at the iterative speed of consumer electronics products and bring rocket manufacturing from manual workshops to the assembly line era

Customer barriers: strategic symbiosis and card quality customers. SpaceX's relationship with the US government has gone beyond a simple customer-contractor relationship and evolved into a deeply tied strategic symbiosis. This relationship has become a powerful moat: NASA and DOD have in fact provided huge subsidies for SpaceX's core research and development (Starship in particular) through these long-term, high-value contracts. In return, the US government received independent, reliable, inexpensive, and technologically advanced space entry capabilities, completely getting rid of the inefficiency of traditional military-industrial complex “cost +” contracts.

Triple growth curve superposition: SpaceX's value should not target traditional military companies, but should be viewed as an organic combination of three different life cycle businesses. The first curve is an absolute monopoly on the launch business. As a cornerstone business, it provides the company with stable cash flow with extremely high market share and profit margins, and plays the role of a cash cow. The second curve is Starlink's exponential growth, which marks the company's leap from B-side manufacturing to C-side operation services. As the world's largest satellite internet operator, Starlink has the characteristics of high recurring revenue with a subscription system similar to SaaS companies, and its market ceiling far exceeds that of traditional launch services. The third curve is a disruptive option for Starship Starship, which is a bet on the future infrastructure of the space economy. Once starship technology is fully mature, it will bring humans into the age of space exploration and unlock trillion-level potential markets including space tourism, intercontinental point-to-point transportation, and deep space resource development. This combination of cash flow+high growth+high options forms the basis for its unique valuation premium.