Silver surged above a record high of $60! Saxo Bank: Multiple favorable resonances can still be expected in 2026

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Saxo Bank released a report on Wednesday stating that due to multiple rare favorable resonances such as monetary policy, market structure, and spot supply and demand, the silver price increase in 2025 has more than doubled, breaking through the $60 mark in one fell swoop to a record high. Looking ahead to 2026, the silver bull market pattern will continue, but we need to be wary of some potential risk disturbances.

As of press release, spot silver rose by about 0.3% to 61.03 US dollars/ounce, with a cumulative increase of 111% during the year. In contrast, spot gold fell by about 0.3% to 4199.46 US dollars/ounce.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, analyzed that tight supply, industrial demand with insufficient price elasticity, and policy-driven market mismatches have all amplified the rise in silver, making the increase far greater than can be explained by the trend of gold alone.

Judging from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the monetary policy easing cycle provides support for silver prices, while supply in the spot market continues to be tight. Demand has surged in fields such as electrification, solar energy, electric vehicles, and data centers, making it difficult for miners to match production capacity; and the US move to include silver in the list of key minerals further highlights this pattern of imbalance between supply and demand.

However, the silver bull market is not without its worries.

Hansen pointed out that valuations in the field of artificial intelligence (AI) are currently at a high level. If there is a sharp slowdown in related investment due to a correction in valuation, it will not only weaken the silver demand for chips and data center infrastructure, but also suppress overall market risk appetite.

Furthermore, the relative valuation level is also alarming: the current gold and silver price ratio has fallen back to around 68, which is basically the same as the 30-year historical average, and has declined sharply from the April high of over 105. Measured in historical terms, silver has moved out of a significantly underestimated range.

Saxo Bank added that this valuation change will be particularly critical in a normal market environment where the dominance of supply and demand constraints weakens. In this context, silver may enter a volatile consolidation phase, and part of the capital may return to gold varieties, but it will not completely withdraw from the precious metals market — after all, gold and silver still have the properties to hedge against fiscal risks, inflationary pressure, and geopolitical fluctuations.

From a technical perspective, the market is paying close attention to whether silver can stand in the 54-55 US dollar range. Saxo Bank stressed that if the silver price breaks through this range and stabilizes above, it will strengthen expectations that the trading range will move upward in 2026; in particular, the forecast that the price of gold is expected to hit the $5,000 mark, which will also support the silver price.