WEBULL

PagerDuty (PD) Is Up 8.9% After AWS Resilience Nod Amid Revenue Cut and Probe News - What's Changed

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • In December 2025, PagerDuty announced it had become one of the first AWS Software Partners to earn the AWS Resilience Services Competency, validating its ability to help enterprises design and operate always-on, mission-critical systems with rapid recovery from failures.
  • Around the same time, investor concerns intensified as PagerDuty lowered its full-year revenue outlook, missed analyst expectations, and became the subject of a federal securities law investigation, highlighting a tension between its operational positioning and near-term growth and governance risks.
  • Next, we’ll examine how this mix of lowered revenue guidance and AWS resilience recognition reshapes PagerDuty’s existing investment narrative.

AI is about to change healthcare. These 30 stocks are working on everything from early diagnostics to drug discovery. The best part - they are all under $10b in market cap - there's still time to get in early.

PagerDuty Investment Narrative Recap

To own PagerDuty, you need to believe that growing complexity in digital infrastructure will keep incident response and resilience software essential, even as customers trim seats and budgets. The key short term catalyst is whether usage based offerings and AI driven tools can offset weaker seat based demand; the biggest current risk is that retention and customer downgrades continue to pressure revenue, and the recent guidance cut and legal investigation both directly reinforce that concern.

The most relevant development here is PagerDuty earning the AWS Resilience Services Competency, which reinforces its role in architecting always on, mission critical systems. For investors, that recognition supports the thesis that PagerDuty’s platform sits close to high value, regulated and large scale workloads, which could matter if usage based monetization gains traction and helps counteract the near term drag from customer budget caution.

Yet despite PagerDuty’s technical positioning, investors should be aware that sustained seat reductions and downgrades could...

Read the full narrative on PagerDuty (it's free!)

PagerDuty's narrative projects $572.1 million revenue and $74.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 6.3% yearly revenue growth and a $111.8 million earnings increase from -$36.9 million today.

Uncover how PagerDuty's forecasts yield a $16.75 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

PD 1-Year Stock Price Chart
PD 1-Year Stock Price Chart

Three fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community cluster between US$16.75 and US$26.81, underlining how far opinions can spread. When you set that against current concerns around revenue headwinds from seat optimization, it becomes even more important to weigh several views on how durable PagerDuty’s growth and pricing model really are.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on PagerDuty - why the stock might be worth just $16.75!

Build Your Own PagerDuty Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

Ready To Venture Into Other Investment Styles?

These stocks are moving-our analysis flagged them today. Act fast before the price catches up:

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.