Societe Generale Securities: In 26Q2, export sales of home appliances are expected to be better than domestic sales, recommend Stone Technology (688189.SH), etc.

The Zhitong Finance App learned that looking ahead to 2026, Societe Generale Securities released a research report saying that, considering the decline in national subsidies and a high base, domestic sales of home appliances are expected to be under pressure, with a trend of low and high back; starting 26Q2, export sales entered a lower base range, and the impact of superimposed tariffs gradually eased, catalyzed by expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, recovery in demand in Europe and the US, and high growth in emerging markets. The export sales boom is expected to be superior to domestic sales. The main investment line focuses on leading targets in the home appliance export chain with sufficient overseas potential, supported valuations, and guaranteed dividends. I recommend the white electric faucet Midea Group (000333.SZ), Haier Smart Home (600690.SH); the black electric faucet Hisense Video (600060.SH), TCL Electronics (01070); and the sweeper faucet Stone Technology (688189.SH).

Societe Generale Securities's main views are as follows:

Home Appliance Recovery: Internal Performance Differentiation, Overall Management Resilience

Fundamental aspects: 1) Cost: Since 2025, raw material prices have fluctuated upward, shipping costs have continued to fall, and the overall cost impact is manageable. 2) Real estate: Benefit policies continue to be optimized, and the valuation and fundamentals of the kitchen appliance sector recovered weakly in the post-cycle period. 3) Domestic demand: National supplements continued to boost domestic demand, and home appliance companies outperformed the market significantly. Due to the higher base and the impact of the policy pace, domestic sales of home appliances will rise and fall in 2025. 4) Exports: Tariffs disrupted the pace of business in the short term, compounded by the impact of a high base, and the growth rate of home appliance exports declined in stages since 2025Q2. The leader relied on the advantages of global layout and the increasing contribution of emerging markets, and showed resilience in export sales. Dividend asset attributes: Moderate dividends+undervaluation, the home appliance sector has outstanding dividend rate advantages. The average dividend rate of the home appliance industry is 3.2%, ranking 4th among Shenwan's 31 tier 1 industries. Fundamental resilience+dividend attributes. The home appliance sector's absolute earnings remained stable in 2025, but the relative earnings performance was weak. Looking ahead to 2026, domestic sales of 26H1 are expected to be under pressure under base pressure. The export sales boom is excellent, and home appliance leaders with both overseas and dividend attributes are preferred.

White power: Strong competitive barriers for leading companies, accelerate overseas acquisition of growth

At the domestic sales level, the national supplement catalyzed the domestic demand boom in 2025. Affected by policy strength and base, the 25H2 growth rate declined month-on-month; looking ahead, the high base pressure is mainly concentrated at 26H1. It is expected that the growth rate will be low and high in 2026 and will remain relatively stable throughout the year; if the national supplement policy continues in 2026, it is expected to further promote domestic demand improvement and pattern optimization. At the export level, the pace of operation fluctuated somewhat under tariff disturbances in 2025, and emerging market dividends injected momentum into export sales growth; looking ahead, starting in 26Q2, the impact of superimposed tariffs was mitigated and emerging markets contributed to accelerated penetration. It is expected that in 2026, the export sales boom will be superior to domestic sales, and the leading competitive advantage in the pattern is sufficient, and share increases and profit improvements are expected to continue to be realized.

Black Electricity: Domestic sales continue to upgrade, overseas events catalyze faster shipments

The domestic color TV market maintains the trend of structural optimization, and domestic leaders leading the popularity of RGBmini LED products are expected to contribute new profit increases. Overseas emerging markets continue to grow, and the World Cup tournament is expected to boost overseas color TV demand. Chinese manufacturers will strengthen their marketing efforts, enhance the local channel structure, and accelerate the increase in overseas shipment share and structure. On the cost side, LCD panel price fluctuations have weakened, and the impact on downstream TV sets has also decreased. Chinese brands are gaining strength in internal and external markets, and it is expected that they will continue to seize the market and improve their structure.

Small household appliances: domestic demand expectations policy, export sales remain stable

At the domestic sales level, at the beginning of 2025, the national supplement policy had a certain effect on domestic sales of small household appliances, but as national subsidies declined, industry demand weakened. Looking ahead to 2026, the bank believes that the national subsidy policy and macroeconomics are still the key to influencing domestic demand for small household appliances. At the export level, the risk of exports of small household appliances has increased due to the geographical conflict. Considering that the US small household appliance industry is highly dependent on the Chinese supply chain, Chinese companies have a strong ability to transfer tariffs, and small and medium-sized foundries are less able to lay out overseas production capacity, it is expected that the share will continue to be concentrated in leading foundries.

Sweepers: Demand potential is still sufficient, and the national subsidy policy is the key

At the domestic sales level, if the 2026 national compensation policy continues, it will not only help accelerate the further increase in the penetration rate of domestic sweepers, but also help repair the domestic sales profit level under the impact of brand self-compensation. In terms of pattern, brands may continue their differentiated marketing strategies in 2026. It is expected that market share will still be concentrated on the top two brands, and the industry pattern will improve marginally. At the export level, the bank expects the overseas market for sweepers to continue the steady growth trend of the past few years in 2026. In terms of the pattern, the global expansion trend of Chinese brands has not changed, but internal competition has intensified. iRobot still needs to observe subsequent performance after fully embracing the Chinese supply chain.

Risk warning: raw material prices have risen sharply; terminal demand falls short of expectations; industry competition has intensified; domestic and foreign economic policy uncertainty