Hong Kong Stock Concept Tracking | Overnight, the US stock lithium concept continues to strengthen, institutions focus on targets with significant production growth in the next few years (with concept stocks)

Overnight, the US stock lithium concept continued to strengthen. Sigma Lithium surged 13%, while Chilean mining chemicals and US Abbott all rose.

According to the “Guardian” report, the US Department of Defense is hoarding key minerals on a large scale through the National Defense Reserve Program. At least 38 minerals and metals are included in the scope of hoarding, including lithium, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements. These are the basic materials that the energy transition depends on.

According to a statement on December 3, Vulcan Energy has received nearly 2.5 billion US dollars in financing to build Europe's largest lithium production project. According to exchange documents, the target annual production capacity of the first phase of the German Lionheart lithium project is 24,000 tons of lithium. The offtake contracts for the previous ten years have all been signed. “The lithium produced by the first phase of the project is sufficient to meet the needs of about 500,000 electric vehicles every year.”

According to the CITIC Construction Investment Research Report, the total demand for lithium batteries is expected to exceed 2,700 GWh next year, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 30%. Among them, demand for energy storage batteries will exceed 900 GWh, and there may be a shortage of lithium batteries in many areas.

According to Huatai Securities, according to estimates, the increase in global lithium resource supply in 2026 will mainly come from the commissioning of new domestic salt lake projects, the release of African and Australian mines, and the rise in production capacity in South American salt lakes. Based on a neutral forecast, we forecast that the global lithium resource supply from 2025 to 2027 will be 1.634 million tons, 2.162 million tons, and 2.52 million tons of LCE, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.3%, 32.3%, and 17.1%, respectively. Considering the stimulating effect of the current high lithium price on production capacity release, we believe that under the three price assumptions of 80,000 yuan/ton/80,000 yuan/ton/90,000 yuan/ton or more, the supply of lithium resources in 26 years was 205.7/216.2/2,234 million tons of LCE, respectively.

CITIC Construction Investment announced investment opportunities in the lithium industry chain in 2026, stating that it still pays attention to resource self-sufficiency indicators, targets with significant output growth in the next few years; it emphasizes low-cost, high-quality resources, and crosses the high-quality targets of bulls and bears. A high resource self-sufficiency rate means a stable supply of raw materials and high gross profit, which can eliminate the risk that pure lithium salt processing may be low-profit processing in the future; as the status of lithium resources increases, overseas countries pay more and more attention to lithium. In addition, there are many mergers and acquisitions at the bottom of the industry, which focus on low-cost and high-quality resources. They can maintain good production and operation at the bottom of the cycle, have abundant cash flow, carry out mergers and acquisitions at the bottom, and have the ability to cross the cycle. As the fluctuation rate of lithium prices decreases, it is difficult to achieve the highest price in history of 600,000. Fluctuating lithium prices places emphasis on the growth of enterprises themselves, and on companies with significant increases in production capacity and output.

Hong Kong stocks in industries related to lithium ore resources:

Tianqi Lithium (09696), Ganfeng Lithium (01772), Longpan Technology (02465)