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Wall Street JournalThe Lottery Corporation Limited's (ASX:TLC) Business Is Yet to Catch Up With Its Share Price
When close to half the companies in Australia have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 21x, you may consider The Lottery Corporation Limited (ASX:TLC) as a stock to potentially avoid with its 32.1x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Lottery could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. It might be that many expect the dour earnings performance to recover substantially, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
View our latest analysis for Lottery
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as Lottery's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 12%. Regardless, EPS has managed to lift by a handy 5.5% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the earlier period of growth. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 9.8% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 18% growth per annum, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
With this information, we find it concerning that Lottery is trading at a P/E higher than the market. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.
The Bottom Line On Lottery's P/E
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of Lottery's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the high P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Lottery that you need to take into consideration.
If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.