An Intrinsic Calculation For Miura Co., Ltd. (TSE:6005) Suggests It's 48% Undervalued

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Miura fair value estimate is JP¥6,074
• Miura is estimated to be 48% undervalued based on current share price of JP¥3,134
• Our fair value estimate is 47% higher than Miura's analyst price target of JP¥4,140

How far off is Miura Co., Ltd. (TSE:6005) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

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The Method

We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF (¥, Millions)	JP¥22.2b	JP¥30.2b	JP¥32.8b	JP¥38.6b	JP¥41.1b	JP¥42.8b	JP¥44.2b	JP¥45.2b	JP¥46.1b	JP¥46.7b
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x4	Analyst x3	Analyst x1	Analyst x1	Est @ 4.22%	Est @ 3.14%	Est @ 2.38%	Est @ 1.84%	Est @ 1.47%
Present Value (¥, Millions) Discounted @ 6.4%	JP¥20.9k	JP¥26.7k	JP¥27.2k	JP¥30.1k	JP¥30.1k	JP¥29.5k	JP¥28.5k	JP¥27.5k	JP¥26.3k	JP¥25.0k

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = JP¥272b

After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 0.6%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 6.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = JP¥47b× (1 + 0.6%) ÷ (6.4%– 0.6%) = JP¥805b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= JP¥805b÷ ( 1 + 6.4%)¹⁰= JP¥431b

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is JP¥703b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of JP¥3.1k, the company appears quite good value at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Miura as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 6.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.112. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

Check out our latest analysis for Miura

SWOT Analysis for Miura

Looking Ahead:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Miura, we've put together three important elements you should consider:

1. Risks: For example, we've discovered 1 warning sign for Miura that you should be aware of before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does 6005's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the TSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.