Air Water (TSE:4088) shareholders have earned a 15% CAGR over the last three years

It hasn't been the best quarter for Air Water Inc. (TSE:4088) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 18% in that time. In contrast the stock is up over the last three years. Arguably you'd have been better off buying an index fund, because the gain of 37% in three years isn't amazing.

With that in mind, it's worth seeing if the company's underlying fundamentals have been the driver of long term performance, or if there are some discrepancies.

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While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, Air Water achieved compound earnings per share growth of 6.9% per year. In comparison, the 11% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

Dive deeper into Air Water's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Air Water's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Air Water's TSR for the last 3 years was 52%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

Air Water provided a TSR of 19% over the last twelve months. But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 6% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Air Water you should know about.

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Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.