Caitong Securities: First Yu Meituan-W (03690) “increase in holdings” rating is the main direction to explore new business growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Caitong Securities released a research report saying that Meituan-W (03690) is a domestic local business leader. Long-term barriers are stable, and short-term competition disrupts long-term value without changing long-term value. As a leading domestic business platform, the main direction is to explore new business growth. Covered for the first time, a “gain” rating was given. The bank estimates the company's revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3662/4174/468.9 billion yuan, respectively.

The main views of Caitong Securities are as follows:

Leading local business platform in China, actively seeking new business growth

As a leading local business platform in China, Meituan's core business covers food and beverage takeout, flash sales, and on-site wine tourism businesses, and is actively developing new businesses such as Little Elephant Supermarket and Fast Donkey, as well as expanding overseas markets. Overall, macroeconomics is the biggest beta. The downstream service industry has a higher growth rate and relatively stronger optional attributes compared to retail sales, and the platform's growth and flexibility are also greater; in the context of increasing online rates, takeout is relatively rigid, building a stable basic market, and the accelerated penetration of in-store and flash shopping businesses has led to high growth.

Actively explore overseas market growth and broaden the company's TAM boundaries

The takeout business has accelerated the expansion of overseas markets, and has made positive progress in regions such as Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia. Keeta's Hong Kong business was already profitable in October this year, and UE indicators increased significantly in the 2025Q3 single quarter, and continued to expand in the Middle East and Latin America this year. Although Meituan's internationalization strategy started late, from a long-term strategic perspective, its layout in the global local lifestyle service market is expected to significantly broaden the company's TAM boundaries and create structural flexibility for future profit growth.

Risk warning: Macroeconomic and consumer demand recovery falls short of expectations, immediate retail competition increases risks, regulatory policies fall short of expectations, and overseas market risks.