Guosheng Securities: The commercial aerospace industry is at a closed-loop tipping point, and the industry is expected to enter a period of rapid growth

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guosheng Securities released a research report saying that as the core carrier of the commercial space industry, the launch speed of the satellite depends on the launch cost. The core bottleneck is recyclable rocket technology. Once the breakthrough in recyclable rocket technology is completed, the speed of China's low-orbit satellites to the sky will increase dramatically. In addition, at present, the AI industry continues to develop, and the construction of space computing power is gradually becoming a trend, and the commercial space application market has opened up dramatically. As the bottleneck of recyclable rockets is broken, the commercial space industry is expected to form a closed loop and push the industry into a period of rapid growth.

Guosheng Securities's main views are as follows:

Satellite orbits and frequencies are on a first-come, first-served basis, and multiple policies support the acceleration of commercial space development

In recent years, all countries have planned large-scale low-orbit satellite constellations on the scale of tens of thousands of satellites, such as America's “Starlink”, China's “Thousand Sails Constellation”, and “State Grid Constellation (GW Constellation).” Since both orbits and frequencies are non-renewable and highly scarce public natural resources, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has established a “first come, first served” rule, where frequency usage rights and orbital positions can be locked down. Otherwise, overdue dates will be recycled, and there is a risk of being taken over by other countries' systems, unable to repair the network, and the global service chain being broken.

Currently, the launch pace of China's low-orbit satellite constellation cannot be called large-scale networking, and it is facing pressure to “occupy frequency and keep track” — the International Telecommunication Union stipulates that operators must launch the first satellite within 7 years of declaration, 10% of the total number of launch constellations within 9 years, complete 50% within 12 years, and be 100% deployed within 14 years.

The acceleration of China's low-orbit satellite launches is a general trend. Commercial space has been included in the government work report for two consecutive years. The “15th Five-Year Plan” plan proposal also emphasizes the development of aerospace. The release of the “National Space Administration's Action Plan to Promote the High-Quality and Safe Development of Commercial Space (2025-2027)” and the recent establishment of the Department of Commercial Space are expected to accelerate the development of the industry.

The first flight of the Suzake-3 rocket reached the goal of entering orbit. China's recyclable rocket technology is expected to enter stages 1 to 10

On December 3, the Blue Rocket Suzake-3 Yao1 carrier rocket was launched at the Dongfeng Commercial Aerospace Innovation Test Zone. The mission was completed according to the procedures, and the rocket entered the scheduled orbit. During the flight of this mission, key actions such as rocket takeoff, stage 1 and 2 separation, stage 2 engine start, fairing separation, stage 2 engine shutdown, stage 2 gliding, and secondary starting of the stage 2 engine were all completed as planned, and the performance was stable and reliable.

At the same time, this mission carried out flight verification of a sub-level vertical recycling technology. According to flight measurement data, the first stage of the rocket had an anomaly after ignition in the landing section. A soft landing on the recycling site was not achieved, and the wreckage landed on the edge of the recycling site. According to Blue Rocket Aerospace data, the rocket's take-off thrust exceeds 750 tons. The target number of times the first stage can be reused is 20 times in the future, and the target is to reduce the launch cost to 20,000 yuan per kilogram.

Referring to SpaceX, landing recycling will drive a significant acceleration in rocket reuse, and rocket launch costs are expected to enter a continuous downward channel

According to 36 Krypton reports, in 2015, the Falcon 9 rocket successfully landed and recovered for the first time, the first offshore platform was recovered in 2016, the rocket was reused in 2017, and the first batch of 60 Starlink satellites were launched into orbit in 2019. As of May 2024, the Falcon 9 first-class rocket had been reused 21 times, with a total of nearly 300 recycling times.

According to the Economic Observer, US SpaceX's “Falcon 9” has a near-Earth orbital capacity of about 22.8 tons. The price for a single arrow launch in 2024 is 69.75 million US dollars, equivalent to about 3,000 US dollars per kilogram (about 21,000 yuan/kg), while domestic commercial rocket launch prices are mostly between 60,000 yuan and 150,000 yuan per kilogram. Falcon 9 can recycle and reuse first-stage rockets and fairings: the first stage accounts for about 67% of the rocket's cost, and the fairing accounts for about 10%. SpaceX has successfully reused the first stage of a single rocket 22 times, and the total number of times it has been recycled and reused more than 300 times. As a result, the cost of the rocket has been drastically reduced.

Related targets

1) Space computing power: Putian Technology (002544.SZ), Shunhao (002565.SZ), Maiwei (300751.SZ), etc.; 2) Rockets: Aerospace Propulsion (600343.SH), Aerospace Mechatronics (600343.SH), Chaojie Co., Ltd. (301005.SZ), etc.; 3) Satellites: Shanghai Hanxun (300762.SZ), Zhenlei Technology (688270.SH), Aerospace Hongtu (), Haige Communications (002465) 688066.SH 688568.SH .SZ) etc.

Risk Alerts

Downstream demand falls short of expectations; industry competition intensifies; industry development falls short of expectations.