Nomura: The US economy is expected to grow 2.4% next year. Interest rates will be cut twice in June and September, and the dollar will depreciate 5% throughout the year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Rob Subbaraman, head of macroeconomic research at Nomura, expects that AI investment in the US will continue to increase and the overall economic environment will be more relaxed. The US economy will grow by 2.4% next year, and the US core inflation level is still close to 3%. He predicts that the US will also cut interest rates by 25 basis points this year. There will be no interest rate cuts in January-May next year, while interest rates will be cut twice in June and September.

Currently, one of his concerns is that there are currently no significant signs of consolidation in the US treasury. It is expected that the US government's spending on defense, an aging society, disasters caused by climate change, and interest payments will increase in the future. Therefore, they will think that fiscal pressure will increase, which will also force the US government to cut interest rates more, or that the US government will force financial institutions to buy more government bonds. This will cause more inflation in the long run.

Nomura said that the Asian stock market will perform better in 2026, the Asian market will attract more capital inflows, and Asia is also the manufacturer of the AI phenomenon. Regarding the US dollar, Chen Liwei, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Nomura, said that the US dollar will be very stable in the first quarter of next year, but the US dollar index (DXY) will depreciate by about 5% throughout the year. There is still downward pressure in the first quarter.