BNY analysts said in a report that the market has fully reflected the expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. At the same time, there is a growing consensus that this rate cut will be characterized as being too tight. According to these analysts, this means that further monetary policy easing will depend on weaker data or lower inflation in March and June 2026. According to these analysts, the upcoming change of chairman of the Federal Reserve also poses a risk because the market will evaluate any new leadership. The US Federal Open Market Committee will also publish a quarterly “Economic Forecast Summary”, which will include views on interest rates in 2026 and beyond, which may confirm recent differences of opinion within the Commission. BNY analysts said, “We expect that opinions on the 2026 policy direction will be very divided, which reflects the two-way economic risks we anticipate in the future.”

BNY analysts said in a report that the market has fully reflected the expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month. At the same time, there is a growing consensus that this rate cut will be characterized as being too tight. According to these analysts, this means that further monetary policy easing will depend on weaker data or lower inflation in March and June 2026. According to these analysts, the upcoming change of chairman of the Federal Reserve also poses a risk because the market will evaluate any new leadership. The US Federal Open Market Committee will also publish a quarterly “Economic Forecast Summary”, which will include views on interest rates in 2026 and beyond, which may confirm recent differences of opinion within the Commission. BNY analysts said, “We expect that opinions on the 2026 policy direction will be very divided, which reflects the two-way economic risks we anticipate in the future.”