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MP Materials (MP) Is Up 6.9% After DoD‑Backed Mine‑to‑Magnet Push - Has The Bull Case Changed?

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Morgan Stanley recently upgraded MP Materials to Overweight, highlighting its role in building a fully domestic US mine‑to‑magnet rare earths supply chain and its joint venture with the Department of Defense and Saudi Arabian Mining Company to develop a refinery in Saudi Arabia.
  • These moves deepen MP Materials’ involvement in securing Western rare earth access for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced electronics, potentially reshaping how governments and manufacturers source critical magnet materials.
  • We’ll now examine how the Department of Defense‑backed mine‑to‑magnet ambitions may reshape MP Materials’ investment narrative for long‑term investors.

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MP Materials Investment Narrative Recap

To own MP Materials, you have to believe in a long term shift toward secure, non Chinese rare earth supply and MP’s ability to execute on a full mine to magnet build out. The Morgan Stanley upgrade and Saudi refinery JV strengthen the near term story around government backed demand, but they do not remove the core execution risk tied to scaling new downstream facilities and returning the business to consistent profitability.

The Saudi Arabian refinery joint venture, backed by the U.S. Department of Defense financing and Maaden’s majority stake, looks most relevant here. It extends MP’s reach beyond Mountain Pass into allied refining capacity, which could reinforce the catalyst of government supported offtake and value added processing, while also increasing the operational and project delivery risks investors need to watch closely.

Yet behind the government support and global partnerships, investors still need to be aware of concentration risk in key customers and...

Read the full narrative on MP Materials (it's free!)

MP Materials’ narrative projects $1.0 billion revenue and $236.3 million earnings by 2028.

Uncover how MP Materials' forecasts yield a $79.11 fair value, a 27% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

MP Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
MP Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Nineteen members of the Simply Wall St Community value MP Materials between US$9.67 and US$85, highlighting very different expectations for the same business. As you weigh those views, consider how much confidence you place in MP’s downstream expansion and mine to magnet execution, given its recent losses and ongoing scale up challenges.

Explore 19 other fair value estimates on MP Materials - why the stock might be worth as much as 37% more than the current price!

Build Your Own MP Materials Narrative

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.