BOC International: Mainland New Energy reverses internal roll-down polysilicon at first sight and is optimistic about the target price of HK$1.54 for GCL Technology (03800)

The Zhitong Finance App learned that BOC International released a research report saying that it is optimistic that GCL Technology (03800) has a clear profit advantage in granular silicon, that its low electricity consumption is in line with policy guidelines. The industry's “reverse internal roll” is driving up polysilicon prices. If production capacity collection and storage can be implemented, it will drive the price to rise further. The target price is HK$1.54. The bank gave the Mainland's new energy and utilities industry a leading rating. After the policy promoted a round of rush to install in the first half of 2025, the bank expects the peak installed season in the mainland to be mild throughout the year compared to previous years, but maintains a record high forecast for the total installed capacity for the whole year.

Looking ahead to 2026, the bank expects mainland PV installations to continue to remain high at 280 GW; wind power installations are still expected to increase by about 11% to 110 GW year-on-year, supported by abundant tenders in the past. The bank's preferences for the covered sub-industries are: polysilicon > inverter/energy storage > operator > photovoltaic glass > battery.