China Merchants Securities: Express delivery business growth slowed in October, and single ticket prices continued to recover year-on-year

The Zhitong Finance App learned that China Merchants Securities released a research report saying that the current market value is relatively cost-effective compared to the 26-year performance, and is concerned about valuation repair opportunities driven by 26-year performance growth. The express delivery business volume increased by 17.2% in October 25 years ago, with a year-on-year increase of +7.9% in October. Judging from high-frequency investment data, the growth rate is expected to pick up slightly in November. “Anti-internal roll” promotes industry price, profit, and valuation repair: Since July, the Post Office has held several “anti-internal roll” related meetings; since August, most regions have completed the first round of price increases, with an increase of 0.2-0.4 yuan. Prices in Guangdong and other regions rose twice in October, an increase of 0.1-0.2 yuan. Price restoration during the peak season has basically been completed, which is expected to drive a significant year-on-year increase in the profit of the Q4 industry. Looking at the full year of '26, the profit growth trend is quite clear. The current market value is relatively cost-effective compared to '26 performance. It is recommended to focus on valuation repair opportunities driven by '26 performance growth.

The main views of China Merchants Securities are as follows:

Express delivery industry core data

1) The year-on-year growth rate of business volume slowed. In October 2025, the national express delivery business volume reached 17.60 billion units, up 7.9% year on year, down 4.9 pct year on year; 2) Single ticket price fell 7.48 yuan, down 3.0% year on year. The year-on-year decline was 1.9 pct narrower than the previous month, down 0.9% month on month; 3) Revenue, express delivery business revenue reached 131.67 billion yuan, up 4.7% year on year, down 2.5 pct year on year.

Consumption data

In January-October, the total amount of Social Zero reached a total of 41.2 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3%; in January-October, the total online retail sales of physical goods reached 10.4 trillion yuan, up 6.3% year on year; according to estimates, online retail sales of physical goods reached 1.25 trillion yuan in October, up 4.9% year on year; corresponding to January to October, the cumulative e-commerce penetration rate reached 25.2%, down 0.7 pct year on year. According to estimates, the total e-commerce penetration rate in October reached 26.9%, up 6.3% year on year; 0.5pct

Core data of listed express delivery companies

1) Differentiation in business volume growth. SF Express benefits from active business development and leading industries in growth. In October 2025, SF, Yuantong, Yunda, and Shentong completed express delivery business volume of 15.2/27.9/21.4/2.27 billion tickets, with year-on-year changes of +26.3%/+12.8%/-5.1%/+4.0%, respectively; 2) Yunda Shentong single ticket prices continued to rise, and SF Express was still under pressure year-on-year due to structural decline. SF Feng/Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong's single ticket revenue in October was 13.2.23/2.11/2.18 yuan, respectively. -10.0%/-3.5%/+4.5%/+7.4%, respectively, with month-on-month changes of -5.0%/+0.9%/+4.5%/+2.8%; 3) Revenue. In October, SF, Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong each achieved express delivery business revenue of 201/62/45 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +13.7%/+9.0%/-0.9%/+11.8%; 4) Yunda and Shentong's market share increased month-on-month, with 8.7%/15.5%/15.7% for the SF, Yuantong/Yunda/Shentong business market share in October 13.3 %/ 13.3%, year-on-year changes were +1.3/+0.4/-0.5/-0.1pct, and month-on-month changes were -0.2/-0.01/+0.8/+0.3 pct, respectively.

Risk warning: Price wars have worsened, franchisee outlets are unstable, macroeconomic growth has declined sharply, costs have risen sharply, and international trade policies have changed drastically.