In 2025, one of the reasons for the rise in copper prices is that the US is hoarding stocks. In particular, this week, after LME copper stocks were collected centrally, market concerns about low inventories in non-US regions became more and more intense. COMEX-LME premiums continue to exist. Although premiums in the third and fourth quarters fell sharply from the second quarter, the average premium remained around $330 per ton. Citigroup said that COMEX and LME arbitrage transactions led to the flow of copper to the US, which is expected to further exacerbate the tight supply of LME copper. Moreover, as investors bet on a soft landing in the US economy, macro-fund purchases will continue to support prices, while the supply gap continues to widen. Copper prices are expected to continue to rise until early next year. The average price for the second quarter is about 13,000 US dollars/ton, higher than the previous October forecast of 12,000 US dollars/ton, and its optimistic forecast will rise from 14,000 US dollars/ton to 15,000 US dollars/ton. Not only is Citi continuing to be bullish, but domestic researchers also generally continue to be bullish on copper. According to CITIC Securities's latest forecast, the LME copper price center will move higher than 12,000 US dollars/ton next year. In terms of cost, the unit exploration cost of global copper mines has increased more than 20 times to more than 3,300 US dollars/ton in the past ten years, and the investment intensity of new construction and expansion projects has doubled to more than 15,000 US dollars/ton. Referring to the copper price level at the peak of the previous round of capital expenditure, the current stimulus price may move up to 12,000 US dollars/ton, and the bottom effect is obvious.

In 2025, one of the reasons for the rise in copper prices is that the US is hoarding stocks. In particular, this week, after LME copper stocks were collected centrally, market concerns about low inventories in non-US regions became more and more intense. COMEX-LME premiums continue to exist. Although premiums in the third and fourth quarters fell sharply from the second quarter, the average premium remained around $330 per ton. Citigroup said that COMEX and LME arbitrage transactions led to the flow of copper to the US, which is expected to further exacerbate the tight supply of LME copper. Moreover, as investors bet on a soft landing in the US economy, macro-fund purchases will continue to support prices, while the supply gap continues to widen. Copper prices are expected to continue to rise until early next year. The average price for the second quarter is about 13,000 US dollars/ton, higher than the previous October forecast of 12,000 US dollars/ton, and its optimistic forecast will rise from 14,000 US dollars/ton to 15,000 US dollars/ton. Not only is Citi continuing to be bullish, but domestic researchers also generally continue to be bullish on copper. According to CITIC Securities's latest forecast, the LME copper price center will move higher than 12,000 US dollars/ton next year. In terms of cost, the unit exploration cost of global copper mines has increased more than 20 times to more than 3,300 US dollars/ton in the past ten years, and the investment intensity of new construction and expansion projects has doubled to more than 15,000 US dollars/ton. Referring to the copper price level at the peak of the previous round of capital expenditure, the current stimulus price may move up to 12,000 US dollars/ton, and the bottom effect is obvious.