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nCino (NCNO) Is Down 5.3% After Q3 Beat, AI Board Additions, and Buyback Completion - What's Changed

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • In early December 2025, nCino, Inc. reported third-quarter revenue of US$152.16 million and net income of US$6.54 million, beating analyst expectations, tightening its year-to-date loss, and issuing revenue guidance for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year ending January 31, 2026.
  • Alongside the earnings beat, nCino completed a US$100.00 million share repurchase program and added AI- and product-focused leaders Andy Yasutake and Diego Dugatkin to its board, reinforcing its emphasis on AI-powered banking software innovation.
  • With this backdrop of stronger-than-expected profitability and full-year guidance, we’ll explore how nCino’s latest AI-driven momentum influences its investment narrative.

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nCino Investment Narrative Recap

To own nCino, you need to believe that AI-powered, cloud banking software will keep gaining traction with banks and credit unions, supporting recurring subscription revenue and a path to sustainable profitability. The latest earnings beat and full-year guidance speak directly to that near term profitability catalyst, while the main risk remains whether intensifying competition and slower adoption of newer AI modules could cap growth despite recent momentum.

Among the recent announcements, the appointments of AI and product leaders Andy Yasutake and Diego Dugatkin to the board are especially relevant, because they align directly with nCino’s push to deepen AI capabilities like Banking Advisor and expand its platform beyond core loan origination. For investors focused on catalysts, this governance refresh sits alongside the completed US$100.00 million buyback and improved EPS guidance as part of a broader effort to support the AI-driven growth story while addressing efficiency and margin concerns.

Yet for all the progress, investors still need to be aware of the risk that heavier AI and product investment could pressure margins if...

Read the full narrative on nCino (it's free!)

nCino's narrative projects $728.9 million revenue and $56.0 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.3% yearly revenue growth and a $89.6 million earnings increase from -$33.6 million today.

Uncover how nCino's forecasts yield a $35.54 fair value, a 52% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

NCNO Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
NCNO Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Five fair value estimates from the Simply Wall St Community span roughly US$17.51 to US$35.54, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. Against this wide range, the recent earnings beat and tighter loss profile sharpen the focus on whether AI driven adoption and margin improvement can offset intensifying competition and concentration in core lending products over time, so it is worth comparing several of these perspectives before deciding where you stand.

Explore 5 other fair value estimates on nCino - why the stock might be worth 25% less than the current price!

Build Your Own nCino Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your nCino research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free nCino research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate nCino's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.