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To own Acadia Healthcare today, you have to believe that long term demand for behavioral health and payer support can ultimately outweigh near term legal, reimbursement and execution setbacks. The sharp increase in patient related litigation costs and liability reserves now looks like the key short term overhang, with Medicaid volume and bad debt issues compounding pressure on margins and testing the current investment case more than any other risk.
The company’s latest guidance cut, driven by an extra US$49 million of professional and general liability expense identified in a third party actuarial review, directly underpins this shift in focus toward legal risk. With analysts trimming price targets and citing higher malpractice costs and leverage concerns, what happens next around litigation outcomes and insurance terms could matter more to the story than the previously highlighted growth from new facilities or payer programs.
Yet against this long term behavioral health growth story, investors should be aware that rising patient litigation and changing insurance cover could...
Read the full narrative on Acadia Healthcare Company (it's free!)
Acadia Healthcare Company's narrative projects $4.1 billion revenue and $322.9 million earnings by 2028. This requires 8.3% yearly revenue growth and a $183.7 million earnings increase from $139.2 million today.
Uncover how Acadia Healthcare Company's forecasts yield a $25.32 fair value, a 64% upside to its current price.
Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for Acadia Healthcare span from US$25.32 to US$342.23 across 2 member models, showing how far apart individual views can be. Set against this optimism, the recent spike in patient related litigation costs and higher liability reserves raises important questions about future profitability that you may want to compare with several of those alternative viewpoints.
Explore 2 other fair value estimates on Acadia Healthcare Company - why the stock might be a potential multi-bagger!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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