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Vertical Aerospace (NYSE:EVTL): Valuation Check After Insider Buying and Upcoming Flight Test Milestones

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

Insider buying and upcoming milestones draw attention to Vertical Aerospace

Vertical Aerospace (NYSE:EVTL) is back on investors radar after insiders boosted their holdings by roughly 50% in November, while majority owner Mudrick Capital added 350,000 shares ahead of key December milestones.

See our latest analysis for Vertical Aerospace.

That insider buying has landed just as the share price has snapped back, with a 7 day share price return of 50.44% and 90 day share price return of 46.85%. Even though the 1 year total shareholder return is still deeply negative, momentum looks to be rebuilding from a low base rather than peaking.

If Vertical’s story has you rethinking the sector, it is worth exploring other aerospace names using our screener for aerospace and defense stocks that are also seeing renewed interest.

With insiders buying aggressively and the share price rebounding from a bruising few years, the real question now is whether Vertical Aerospace is still trading below its potential or if the market is already pricing in a turnaround.

Most Popular Narrative: 88.7% Undervalued

Compared to Vertical Aerospace’s last close at $6.77, the most widely followed narrative anchors on a far higher fair value of $60, implying substantial upside if its assumptions prove accurate.

Vertical Aerospace is developing its VX4 eVTOL aircraft, as well as a hybrid eVTOL (HeVTOL) variant with additional combustion powertrain that offers additional range and payload for applications such as defence and logistics. With pre-orders for 1,500 VX4 eVTOL aircraft with a total pre-order value of $6 billion¹, including for leading companies such as American Airlines and Bristow, one of the world’s largest helicopter operators, it may not be long before Vertical’s aircraft are a familiar sight the world over.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how a long dated certification timeline, ambitious profitability targets and a premium future multiple all combine to justify that punchy fair value? The tension between today’s zero revenues and tomorrow’s projected margins is at the heart of this narrative. Curious how those assumptions stack up against better capitalised peers? Dive into the full story and unpack the numbers driving that target.

Result: Fair Value of $60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the thesis hinges on timely certification and sizeable new funding, and any delay, failed raise, or adverse safety development could quickly unwind sentiment.

Find out about the key risks to this Vertical Aerospace narrative.

Build Your Own Vertical Aerospace Narrative

If this perspective does not fully resonate or you would rather lean on your own analysis, you can quickly build a personalised view in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Vertical Aerospace research is our analysis highlighting 8 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.