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To own AAR today, you need to believe in the long term demand for third party aircraft maintenance, repair, and parts supply, and the company’s ability to convert that into higher earnings despite thin current margins and competition from OEMs. The CFO transition to long time insider Sarah Flanagan looks incremental rather than thesis changing, and the sharpest near term swing factor remains execution on higher margin Parts Supply and digital initiatives versus the risk of a slowdown in commercial aviation demand.
The recent US$249,000,000 follow on equity offering is especially relevant here, because it underlines how much AAR is leaning on shareholder capital to fund growth while its free cash flow has been close to breakeven. That choice can amplify the benefit if AAR’s aftermarket and digital bets pay off, but it also raises the stakes for any stumble in integrating acquisitions or defending share against OEMs in key MRO and parts distribution contracts.
Yet while the growth story can sound compelling, investors should also be aware that...
Read the full narrative on AAR (it's free!)
AAR’s narrative projects $3.2 billion revenue and $293.3 million earnings by 2028. This requires 4.8% yearly revenue growth and a roughly $280.8 million earnings increase from $12.5 million today.
Uncover how AAR's forecasts yield a $92.25 fair value, a 12% upside to its current price.
Three Simply Wall St Community fair value estimates for AAR range from US$76.69 to US$191.82, underscoring how far apart individual views can be. Set these wide valuation gaps against the concentration of risk in AAR’s commercial aviation exposed Parts Supply business, and you can see why it pays to weigh several viewpoints before deciding how this stock might fit in your portfolio.
Explore 3 other fair value estimates on AAR - why the stock might be worth 7% less than the current price!
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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