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How BNP Paribas Exane’s AI-Focused Upgrade At Toast (TOST) Has Changed Its Investment Story

Simply Wall St · 1d ago
  • Earlier this week, BNP Paribas Exane upgraded Toast to an 'Outperform' rating, reflecting increased confidence in the restaurant-technology platform’s long-term growth potential.
  • This renewed analyst conviction underscores how Toast’s AI-driven software and hardware ecosystem is increasingly viewed as a solution to persistent labor and efficiency challenges in hospitality.
  • We’ll now examine how this analyst upgrade, highlighting Toast’s AI-powered tools, may influence the company’s existing investment narrative.

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Toast Investment Narrative Recap

To own Toast, you need to believe restaurants will keep adopting its integrated, AI-enabled platform to solve labor and efficiency pressures, and that Toast can convert that adoption into durable, profitable growth. The BNP Paribas Exane upgrade reinforces confidence in that thesis but does not materially change the near term focus on margin expansion as a key catalyst or the ongoing risk that rising sales and marketing spend could weigh on profitability if productivity gains slow.

The most relevant recent development is Toast’s continued profitability progress, with net income reaching US$273.0 million on US$5,858.0 million of revenue over the latest reported period. This improvement gives extra context to analyst optimism around its AI-powered ecosystem, but it also raises the bar for Toast to keep balancing investment in international expansion and hardware innovation with the need to protect net margins as competition intensifies.

Yet beneath the upbeat AI and growth story, investors should also be aware of rising customer acquisition costs and the risk that...

Read the full narrative on Toast (it's free!)

Toast’s narrative projects $8.9 billion revenue and $738.5 million earnings by 2028. This requires 17.3% yearly revenue growth and a $514.5 million earnings increase from $224.0 million.

Uncover how Toast's forecasts yield a $47.35 fair value, a 33% upside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

TOST Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
TOST Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Simply Wall St Community members see Toast’s fair value anywhere between about US$26.77 and US$58.86 across 11 different views, highlighting how widely opinions can differ. Set against that spread, the recent analyst upgrade and focus on AI driven tools puts extra attention on whether Toast can sustain margin gains without letting sales and marketing intensity erode earnings quality over time.

Explore 11 other fair value estimates on Toast - why the stock might be worth as much as 65% more than the current price!

Build Your Own Toast Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Toast research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Toast research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Toast's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.