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Evaluating TFI International (TSX:TFII) After Resilient Performance in a Tough Freight and LTL Market

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Resilience and Market Dynamics Put TFI International Back in Focus

Increased attention on TFI International (TSX:TFII) is being driven by how steadily it is navigating weak freight demand, sticky inflation, and softer consumer spending, while still capitalizing on tighter capacity in the less than truckload market.

See our latest analysis for TFI International.

That resilience has not yet translated into headline-grabbing gains, with a sharp year to date share price return of negative 29.11 percent and a one year total shareholder return of negative 36.17 percent. However, the recent seven day share price rebound of 10.47 percent suggests sentiment could be stabilizing as investors reassess its long term cash generation and LTL pricing power.

If TFII has you thinking more broadly about cyclical opportunities and pricing power, it is a good time to discover fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With TFII trading below its estimated intrinsic value but only modestly under analyst targets, the key question is whether today’s price reflects temporary freight headwinds or whether the market is already pricing in its next leg of growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 6.6% Undervalued

Compared to TFI International’s last close of CA$134.63, the most followed narrative sees modest upside based on a higher long term fair value.

The strong free cash flow generation supported by disciplined CapEx, cost controls, and effective working capital management enables accelerated share buybacks and ongoing dividends, driving per-share earnings growth independent of the near-term revenue environment.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady but unspectacular revenue growth, rising margins, and shrinking share count combine into this value gap? The narrative’s math might surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $144.16 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, prolonged weak North American freight demand and difficulty lifting U.S. LTL pricing could delay the earnings and valuation uplift that underpin this undervaluation thesis.

Find out about the key risks to this TFI International narrative.

Build Your Own TFI International Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dive into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view of TFII in under three minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TFI International research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.