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Moderna (MRNA): Assessing Valuation After a Quiet Share Price Rebound

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Moderna (MRNA) has been on a quiet rebound lately, with the stock up about 9% over the past week and nearly 18% this month, even as its one year return remains sharply negative.

See our latest analysis for Moderna.

That pop in Moderna’s share price to about $27.70, including a double digit 30 day share price return, has come after a tough stretch where the one year total shareholder return is still deeply negative. As a result, the recent strength looks more like the start of rebuilding confidence than a full trend reversal.

If Moderna’s move has you rethinking the broader sector, this could be a good moment to explore other opportunities across healthcare stocks and see how different healthcare names stack up on growth, risk, and momentum.

With shares still down sharply over one and three years but trading at a sizable discount to analyst targets, despite returning to revenue and income growth, is Moderna a contrarian buy today or has the market already priced in its recovery?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 26% Undervalued

With Moderna closing at $27.70 against a narrative fair value near $37, the prevailing view reflects a meaningful recovery story from today’s levels.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $44.25 for Moderna based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $198.0, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $15.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue lift, margin turnaround and future earnings multiple are reflected in that gap between today’s price and fair value? The full narrative outlines the specific growth path, profitability change and valuation adjustment behind this optimistic target range, and how they all combine into a higher long term number.

Result: Fair Value of $37.32 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained COVID vaccine revenue declines and rising competition in respiratory vaccines could derail the optimism embedded in today’s recovery narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Moderna narrative.

Build Your Own Moderna Narrative

If you would rather stress test these assumptions yourself or take a different view on Moderna’s outlook, you can build a custom narrative in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward investors are optimistic about regarding Moderna.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.