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Kimco Realty (KIM): Assessing Valuation After a Recent Share Price Pullback

Simply Wall St · 2d ago

Kimco Realty (KIM) has quietly lagged the market this year, with shares down about 12% year to date and 16% over the past year. This performance has prompted fresh questions about whether the REIT now looks undervalued.

See our latest analysis for Kimco Realty.

Kimco’s 11.6% 90 day share price decline and weaker 1 year total shareholder return signal fading momentum, even as its 3 year and 5 year total shareholder returns remain firmly positive, suggesting the market is reassessing risk rather than abandoning the long term story.

If Kimco’s recent pullback has you rethinking your real estate exposure, it might also be worth exploring how other property names stack up against growth focused fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With shares now trading at a sizable discount to both analyst targets and some intrinsic value estimates, the key question is whether Kimco is genuinely mispriced or if the market is already accounting for slower growth ahead.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 16.8% Undervalued

With Kimco Realty last closing at $20.13 versus a narrative fair value near $24.18, the valuation case leans on specific growth and margin assumptions.

The ongoing focus on acquiring and developing grocery anchored centers in high income, high growth areas is boosting portfolio resilience, supporting stable long term occupancy, and underpins rising rental income and durable net margins.

Strategic recycling of capital from low growth assets into higher yielding grocery anchored properties combined with an active structured investment program providing a pipeline of future acquisitions positions Kimco to enhance EBITDA and net margins, especially if cost of capital improves.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady top line growth, shifting profit margins, and a richer future earnings multiple all combine to justify that higher fair value? The narrative breaks down the exact revenue path, profit profile, and valuation multiple that need to line up for this upside case to work, and it spells out which expectations carry the most weight in the model.

Result: Fair Value of $24.18 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside case could be derailed if online grocery adoption weakens anchor tenants or if higher interest rates further restrict accretive acquisitions and redevelopment.

Find out about the key risks to this Kimco Realty narrative.

Build Your Own Kimco Realty Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Kimco Realty research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.