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Why Five Below (FIVE) Is Up 5.0% After Raising 2025 Guidance And Store Expansion Plan

Simply Wall St · 2d ago
  • Five Below recently reported past third-quarter 2025 results, with sales rising to US$1,038.29 million and net income climbing to US$36.51 million, and it also issued guidance calling for full-year 2025 net sales of about US$4.62–4.65 billion and net income of US$306–316 million.
  • The company’s raised full-year outlook, underpinned by higher comparable sales assumptions and an aggressive plan to open about 150 net new stores, highlights management’s confidence in both demand and its expansion model.
  • We’ll now examine how Five Below’s strong quarter and raised full-year guidance might reshape its investment narrative around growth and margins.

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Five Below Investment Narrative Recap

To own Five Below, you need to believe that its low-price, trend-focused model can support years of disciplined store growth without eroding margins. The strong third-quarter beat and higher full-year outlook reinforce the near term growth catalyst of accelerating comparable sales and new store openings, while also slightly easing concern that tariffs and cost inflation could immediately overwhelm profitability. The latest numbers do not remove those margin risks, but they make them feel less pressing right now.

The most relevant update is management’s decision to raise full-year 2025 guidance to US$4.62–4.65 billion in net sales and US$306–316 million in net income, underpinned by about 150 net new stores and high single digit to low double digit comparable sales growth. For investors, this speaks directly to the core growth catalyst of store expansion and comp momentum, but it also raises the stakes if tariffs, labor costs or competitive pressure start to bite into margins.

Yet even with this upbeat guidance, investors should be aware that tariff related cost pressure could still...

Read the full narrative on Five Below (it's free!)

Five Below's narrative projects $5.7 billion revenue and $352.1 million earnings by 2028. This requires 10.6% yearly revenue growth and about a $79 million earnings increase from $273.1 million today.

Uncover how Five Below's forecasts yield a $163.14 fair value, a 6% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

FIVE Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025
FIVE Community Fair Values as at Dec 2025

Three members of the Simply Wall St Community currently see fair value between US$79.14 and US$163.14 per share, underscoring how far opinions can diverge. Set against Five Below’s upgraded guidance and heavy reliance on aggressive store expansion, this spread invites you to weigh several viewpoints on how growth and margin risks might shape future performance.

Explore 3 other fair value estimates on Five Below - why the stock might be worth less than half the current price!

Build Your Own Five Below Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

  • A great starting point for your Five Below research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards that could impact your investment decision.
  • Our free Five Below research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate Five Below's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.