WEBULL

Shell (LSE:SHEL): Assessing Valuation After a Strong Multi‑Year Shareholder Return Run

Simply Wall St · 12/05/2025 09:27

Shell stock in focus

Shell (LSE:SHEL) has quietly outperformed many peers over the past year, and that steady climb has investors asking whether the current valuation still offers enough upside to justify new positions.

See our latest analysis for Shell.

The latest share price of £27.995 reflects a steady grind higher, with a 90 day share price return of 6.55% and a five year total shareholder return of 137.48%, suggesting momentum is still very much on Shell’s side.

If Shell’s run has you thinking about where else to put fresh capital, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership as potential next wave candidates.

Yet with Shell trading near record highs, robust earnings growth and a sizeable intrinsic discount, investors face a key question: is there still a genuine buying opportunity here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 10.9% Undervalued

With Shell’s fair value estimate sitting above the £27.995 last close, the most followed narrative frames today’s strength as leaving further room to run.

Shell's aggressive high grading of its portfolio (divestment of non core assets in Chemicals, Retail, and Renewables, and targeted upstream investments in deepwater and LNG) is redirecting capital to higher return assets and geographies, underpinning higher operating leverage and future ROIC, and paving the way for more robust and resilient free cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how modest top line growth, fatter margins, and shrinking share count combine into that upside, and why the future multiple really matters? Dive in.

Result: Fair Value of $31.43 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, lingering weakness in chemicals and a bumpier than expected LNG market could easily knock margins off course and erode that perceived undervaluation.

Find out about the key risks to this Shell narrative.

Build Your Own Shell Narrative

If you see Shell’s outlook differently or simply prefer to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a custom view in minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Shell research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.