Dongwu Securities: Increased demand for computing power is driving up the penetration rate of liquid cooling, and I am optimistic that the domestic supply chain will enter the market at an accelerated pace

The Zhitong Finance App learned that Dongwu Securities released a research report saying that the cold plate type dominates the main solution for liquid cooling at this stage, and the immersion type is expected to become the future development direction. As the maturity of domestic liquid cooling systems gradually increases, and terminal CSP pays more attention to product cost performance, the domestic chain is expected to directly enter the Nvidia system as a supplier. Currently, demand for AI server computing power is growing rapidly, and demand for efficient and energy-saving heat transfer solutions in data centers is exploding. It is recommended to focus on Invec (002837.SZ), Shenling Environmental (301018.SZ), Gaolan (300499.SZ), Hongsheng (603090.SH), Zhongke Shuguang (603019.SH), and Jiebang Technology (301326.SZ).

The main views of Dongwu Securities are as follows:

Liquid cooling technology: the only way to solve cooling pressure in data centers

1) Liquid cooling technology is the only way to solve the cooling pressure of data centers. It has the advantages of low energy consumption, high heat dissipation, low noise and low TCO. At the same time, it can reduce the data center PUE value and meet national requirements. 2) At the same time, as chip iteration and power density surges, the cooling demand for corresponding chips is increasing, and traditional air cooling is unsustainable, so introducing liquid cooling is imperative. The cold plate type dominates the main solution of liquid cooling at this stage, and the immersion type is expected to become the future development direction. 3) The liquid cooling system is mainly composed of the outdoor side (primary side) and the computer room side (secondary side). The primary side accounts for about 30% of the value, mainly including chillers, circulation pipelines, safety monitoring instruments, etc.; the secondary side accounts for about 70% of the value. The core components include CDU, Manifold+ quick couplings, pipeline pump valves, etc.

Liquid cooling industry: As chip upgrades increase in liquid cooling value, domestic production chains are entering the market at an accelerated pace

1) The value of liquid cooling increases along with chip upgrades: With the iteration of chip upgrades, the corresponding liquid cooling value will also grow rapidly. Take the GB300-GB200 server as an example. According to the bank's estimates, the value of rack liquid cooling modules is expected to increase by more than 20%. In the future, with the Rubin architecture upgrade, liquid cooling value is expected to increase further. According to the bank's estimates, the scale of liquid cooling systems for ASIC is expected to reach 35.3 billion yuan in '26, and the scale of liquid cooling systems for Nvidia will reach 69.7 billion yuan.

2) Accelerated entry into the domestic chain: In terms of the business model, Nvidia decentralized the supplier list, and the foundry independently chose the supply chain composition. As a result, Vidi was the only certified CDU to switch to multiple suppliers, and the domestic chain is expected to be indirectly entered through secondary supply; in addition, as the maturity of domestic liquid cooling systems gradually increases, and terminal CSP pays more attention to product cost performance, the domestic chain is expected to directly enter the NV system as a supplier.

Rubin architecture outlook: microchannel cover & phase change cold plate are optional solutions

The single-phase cold plate cannot be applied to the Rubin architecture. The thermal design power consumption (TDP) of the Rubin architecture reaches 2300W, and the total cabinet power is about 200KW, while the design upper limit of the single-phase cold plate is 150KW/cabinet, so it cannot be applied to the Rubin architecture, and a new liquid cooling solution needs to be introduced. 1) Feasible solution 1: Phase change cold plate: The phase change cold plate absorbs heat in the cold plate through liquid material, and uses a large amount of latent heat absorbed during the phase change process to achieve efficient heat dissipation. Generally speaking, the medium of the phase change cold plate is mainly fluorinated liquid, suitable for a single cabinet 300KW+ scenario; 2) Possible solution 2: Microchannel cover plate (MLCP). The core is to place a highly dense microscale coolant channel network directly below or inside the cold plate substrate. The channel width can range from a few microns to a few hundred microns Ranging from meters, channel densities can usually reach hundreds to thousands per square centimeter . The bank determined that the microchannel cover is more likely to become the Rubin architecture option. The main reason is that if the Rubin Ultra scheme is followed, the thermal design power consumption (TDP) reaches 4000+W, and the total cabinet power exceeds 600KW. At this point, the phase change cold plate will no longer be applicable, so if the maturity of the scheme is taken into account, it will be more conducive to further iterative development in the future.

Risk warning: the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; the risk of liquid cooling market penetration falling short of expectations; domestic chain entry into the North American market falls short of the expected risk.