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TMX Group (TSX:X) Valuation Check After Recent Pullback and Year-to-Date Share Price Gains

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

TMX Group (TSX:X) has had an interesting stretch lately, with the stock up about 15% this year but slipping roughly 6% over the past 3 months, leaving investors rechecking their expectations.

See our latest analysis for TMX Group.

The recent pullback largely reflects investors cooling on exchange operators after a strong run, even though TMX’s year-to-date share price return remains solid and its multi-year total shareholder returns point to durable, if slower building, momentum.

If TMX’s steady gains have you thinking about where else markets are rewarding consistency, this could be a good moment to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

With healthy profit growth, a double digit discount to analyst targets, but a high valuation on some metrics, investors are left wondering whether TMX Group is a sneaky value play or already pricing in years of expansion.

Most Popular Narrative: 2.3% Overvalued

Compared to TMX Group’s last close at CA$51.06, the most followed narrative pegs fair value only slightly lower, implying a tight valuation range and measured upside expectations.

TMX Group is a stable, high quality compounder with dependable cash flows, a wide moat, and disciplined management. It will not deliver explosive returns, but it offers consistent value creation, resilience, and a growing stream of recurring data driven revenue.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady, single digit growth assumptions can still justify a premium multiple and double digit returns over time? The full narrative reveals the specific revenue mix, margin trajectory, and long term compounding formula behind that conclusion, but keeps one crucial growth lever quietly at the center of its valuation story.

Result: Fair Value of $49.9 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, even this steady compounding story could be challenged if trading and IPO activity weakens further, or if the integration of Trayport and VettaFi underdelivers.

Find out about the key risks to this TMX Group narrative.

Build Your Own TMX Group Narrative

If you see TMX differently or want to stress test your own assumptions using the same data, you can build a custom narrative in minutes: Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding TMX Group.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.