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TOKYO BASELtd (TSE:3415) jumps 10% this week, though earnings growth is still tracking behind three-year shareholder returns

Simply Wall St · 1d ago

While TOKYO BASE Co.,Ltd. (TSE:3415) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 19% in the last quarter. On the other hand the share price is higher than it was three years ago. However, it's unlikely many shareholders are elated with the share price gain of 46% over that time, given the rising market.

The past week has proven to be lucrative for TOKYO BASELtd investors, so let's see if fundamentals drove the company's three-year performance.

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In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During three years of share price growth, TOKYO BASELtd achieved compound earnings per share growth of 9.6% per year. This EPS growth is lower than the 14% average annual increase in the share price. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-per-share-growth
TSE:3415 Earnings Per Share Growth December 4th 2025

We know that TOKYO BASELtd has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? You could check out this free report showing analyst revenue forecasts.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for TOKYO BASELtd the TSR over the last 3 years was 51%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that TOKYO BASELtd has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 41% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 2% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for TOKYO BASELtd you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.